Tyches Swan
2025-04-07

If I had cash, I'd park it in treasuries at least till the news cycle is a little bit more optimistic. There's more downside risk in the short term.

TLT Outruns IEF: How Much Duration Is the Market Buying?
IEF gained 1.08% and TLT 1.87% as the 10-year Treasury yield fell over 17 basis points to 4.972%, its lowest since Sept. 23. Equity weakness, AI credit concerns, and safe-haven demand supported bonds, though oil near $100 keeps inflation risks alive. Bulls favor TLT if growth cools; bears warn long duration is vulnerable to inflation and rate repricing. What macro signal would justify extending duration from IEF to TLT?
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