$TSLA Summary - 4/23/2025
Positive Catalysts:
1/ Trump streamlines federal process allowing TSLA to secure general unsupervised autonomy license nationally
2/ More affordable vehicle launch at end of 2025 2Q may slow further EV share loss
3/ FSD licensing deal with 1 or more OEMs
4/ TSLA likely first to market with generalized unsupervised FSD FY’25 YE
5/ DE Supreme Court overturns Chancellor McCormick’s 2018 comp ruling late 2025
6/ Cybercab volume production begins 2026
7/ Optimus production begins late-2026
Negative Catalysts:
1/ Trump eliminates $7,500 IRA EV purchase credit
2/ TSLA fails to introduce new cheaper form factor in 2025/1H, and instead cuts prices and costs similar to 2023
3/ Robotaxi Austin test market proves inconclusive, not extended to other states
4/ FY’25 deliv expectations to be reduced to -5% to -8% YoY from +1-2% currently.
5/ TSLA 2025 P/E of 100x too high relative to FY’25-‘30 EPS growth of +25% CGR.
Comments