TMDX AT 100X PE IS NOT EXPENSIVE

8899Nar
06-05

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!

1.

$TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ AT 100X PE IS NOT EXPENSIVE

HERE'S WHY🧵:

1) If you believe in CEO execution Transmedics could achieve 10k transplants by 2028 and 20-30k by 2033.

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2) You can convert these numbers in approximately $1.2B and $2.5B of revenue.

I assumed a ~2x and not more because kidney procedures will cost less than the other organs ones.

3) So, we can assume:

• $2.5B revenue in 2033

• 24% profit margin

• 30x PE multple: Below medtech mature leaders with good growth profiles (ISRG, EW, BSX)

4) The result is $600M of net income by 2033 and a possible $18B market cap.

Considering the actual market cap at 4.5B the stock can 4X in ~9 years delivering a 17% CAGR return.

5) Similar returns have been delivered by the other medtech companies I mentioned before during the process of building a new market (Robotic surgery, TAVR, PFA).

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