SPY crash 5% most likely (70% chance) Aug-Sept for 5 reasons

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crash 5% most likely (70% chance) Aug-Sept for 5 reasons:

1. P/E valuations are high

2. Mean reversion and RSI overbought

3. Trump Tariffs to kick in Aug 1st.

4. Inflation to come back

5. SPY needs a HEALTHY correction for target $675

Here's how I'd play this in 3 steps:

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1. Earnings will kick off and I expect it will do better then expected for most companies actually. I'd start trimming positions so to keep a healthy cash position.

2. As SPY breaks above $630 and possibly as high as $640+ I'd take puts for Sept 26 $600 (as insurance). Those with a small account you can take as low as $580.

3. With my cash position I will add $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ when they are on sale with 1 year expiry.

Bookmark this to review statistically what has happened in the past and would happen in 2025. My target for SPY year end is $675+

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This is a buy the dip and swing trading market. You do not need to always scalp SPY $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ TSLA with ODTE to try to make money. This is hard to do.

If you work full-time and have about $500-$2000 you can start swing trading and waiting to add strong companies.

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