Weekly: Powell's Jackson Hole speech steps into the spotlight

TigerObserver
08-18


Last Week's Recap

The US Market - The Dow and S&P hit record highs

  • The major averages remained held firm over the week, as fresh inflation data bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.

  • The Dow Jones led the pack, climbing 1.74% on the back of a 12% surge in UnitedHealth. The S&P 500 advanced 0.94% and the Nasdaq gained 0.81%. Both the Dow and S&P touched record intraday highs on Friday before easing slightly.

  • July inflation showed a mixed picture: headline CPI came in cooler than anticipated at 2.7% year over year, while core CPI accelerated to 3.1% — its fastest pace since February. Traders now see better than a 90% chance of a rate cut next month.

  • On the flip side, producer prices ran hotter than expected, but upbeat retail sales and ongoing strength in technology stocks underscored economic resilience, helping offset inflation concerns and supporting sentiment.

The US Sectors & Stocks - UNH surged after BRK disclosed its holding

  • Among S&P 500 sectors, Healthcare topped the weekly gains, climbing nearly 5%. UnitedHealth (UNH) surged 12% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $1.6B stake, driving managed-care optimism. UNH ended the week up more than 20%.

  • Consumer Cyclical strength, as Amazon (AMZN) shares rose on news of expanding same-day delivery of perishables to 2,300 U.S. cities by year-end, building on Whole Foods and Amazon Fresh. The move pressured rivals Instacart (CART) and DoorDash (DASH), while Walmart (WMT) saw modest losses.

  • Intel (INTC) jumped 23% amid reports the U.S. government may take a stake to support domestic chip manufacturing, particularly its Ohio factory expansion.

  • Applied Materials (AMAT) beat Q2 estimates but warned of weaker September guidance, sending shares down 12.5%. In contrast, Micron Technology (MU) raised guidance, boosting investor confidence.

  • Bullish (BLSH) debuted on the NYSE, opening at $90, spiking to $118 before closing at $68. The Peter Thiel-backed crypto exchange and owner of CoinDesk (COIN) set the IPO price of $37.

  • CoreWeave (CRWV) tumbled 23% as the lockup stock tied to the IPO expired on August 15. Despite a Q2 loss, The cloud computing services provider's revenue jumped 206% to $1.213B due to surging AI demand; Q3 and full-year guidance was raised.

  • Circle (CRCL) initially rose on strong Q2 results (revenue +53%) but pared gains after announcing a 10M share offering. USDC circulation grew 90% during the quarter to $61.3B, reaching $65.2B by August 10.

  • Sea (SE) reported a standout Q2, with sales up 38% to $5.26B and earnings up 364%. U.S.-listed shares jumped 19%, and the stock has more than doubled over the past year, highlighting the robust growth of Shopee and regional e-commerce.

  • Cisco (CSCO) saw a decline of over 7%, attributed to cautious revenue guidance and market concerns about demand in China.

  • DLocal (DLO) surged by 43%, exceeding revenue expectations and raising full-year forecasts, signaling strong growth in the online payment sector.

Hong Kong Market - Tencent boosted HSI by 1.7%

  • The Hang Seng Index (HSI) advanced 1.7% last week, driven by strong performances in the technology sector, particularly from Tencent, which boosted investor confidence in tech stocks.

  • Tencent (0700.HK) gained 5.5%, hitting a 3-year high after Q2 revenue grew 15% YoY, beating forecasts. The company also unveiled plans to scale up its cloud computing operations, reinforcing investor optimism.

  • Tencent Music (1698.HK) soared 21.6% as Q2 revenue rose 17.9%, fueled by a sharp increase in paid subscribers.

  • JD.com (9618.HK) slipped 2.1% despite posting solid Q2 earnings. Investor concerns over widening losses in its food delivery unit weighed on the stock.

  • JD Health (6618.HK) surged 16% after mid-year revenue climbed 24.5%. Analysts raised their price targets, citing stronger online healthcare penetration.

Singapore Market - STI eased slighty

  • The Straits Times Index (STI) dipped 0.22% this week to close at 4,230.53, as mixed earnings and cautious sentiment kept gains in check. Investors also looked ahead to planned peace talks between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin over the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

  • Singtel (SGX:Z74) posted a 14% YoY profit increase in Q1, lifting its shares 3.0% for the week.

Australian Market - ASX hit a record high

  • The Australian share market has soared to a new record high, thanks largely to the Reserve Bank’s decision to belatedly cut official interest rates to 3.6%. The ASX 200 Index (XJO.AU) rose 1.5% this week, closing at 8,938.6.

  • Financials led the charge last week: Westpac (ASX:WBC) surged 9% to $36.81, its strongest level in a decade, while ANZ (ASX:ANZ) advanced 7% after reporting a $19 billion jump in deposits in Q3.

The Week Ahead

Macro Factors - Powell in Focus at Jackson Hole

  • All eyes turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, under the theme “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” Investors are watching for clues on the Fed’s next moves.

  • Markets currently price in over an 80% chance of a quarter-point rate cut next month, but Powell could cool expectations if he leans more hawkish. His remarks may shape sentiment heading into the September, October, and December FOMC meetings.

  • Meanwhile, Fed minutes could also illustrate the current dynamic at the central bank, given that the last meeting Fed governors Waller and Bowman to vote against the central bank's decision to keep rates unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.50%. It was the most meaningful dissent since late 1993.

  • The high-stakes visit of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House. The U.S. is pushing for a full peace agreement with Russia.

Earnings

  • Earnings season slows, but heavyweight retailers will take center stage. Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Home Depot (HD) are set to report, offering a key read on U.S. consumer health.

  • Recent economic data shows consumer spending has stabilized despite tariff-related headwinds earlier this year. Walmart’s Thursday results will be especially critical, given its scale and ability to reflect broader retail trends.

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