$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ๐ August Seasonality vs September Risk
Iโm watching August finish stronger than usual. $SPY is closing the month up ~3%. The last time we saw this was August 2020, which ended +7% but gave back 65% of those gains in September with a โ4.5% decline. Seasonality warns that September rarely inches green, so Iโm weighing whether weโll see a controlled pullback or a surprise AugustโSeptember back-to-back surge given the April 30% drawdown already reset positioning.
๐ Key Dark Pool & Technical Levels
Iโm tracking intraday rejections at $644.85 and immediate support at $643.34, with $642.78 beneath. Multiple uploaded Keltner and Bollinger overlays show SPY compressing inside narrowing bands, signaling volatility expansion is ahead. The 5m breakdown chart confirmed the opening range break, aligning with end-of-month sell pressure.
๐ช Possible Inverse Head & Shoulders Formation
Iโm also watching the potential development of an IHS pattern on $SPY. The left shoulder and head are already defined, and if the right shoulder stabilizes above the $643โ644 support shelf, it sets up a constructive reversal base into September. That neckline sits near $648, meaning any breakout above that zone could trigger a measured move higher, invalidating the seasonal weakness playbook. For now, that $643โ648 range is where the battle is being fought.
๐ฅ Options Flow & Gamma Exposure
Iโm seeing relentless put flow:
โข 0DTE puts > calls by $5M+
โข 7DTE puts > calls by $800K
โข โค90DTE puts > calls by $15M+
Gamma exposure clustered at $650 earlier but faded as SPY slipped, leaving little negative gamma under spot. That means dealers arenโt forced into aggressive downside hedging yet, suggesting a grind lower rather than panic.
๐ Macro & CTA Context
SPX is still climbing on CTA support per the MenthorQ chart, which explains the resilience. But Edgefulโs screeners line up with todayโs action:
โข SPY โ bearish bias, target close below $647.47
โข QQQ โ bullish bias, target close above $574.67
โข IWM โ bearish bias, target close below $236.76
SPY has already exceeded 94.7% of ADR and triggered opening candle continuation downside, giving mechanical confirmation to the selloff.
๐ Macro Data Check
July Core PCE came in at +0.3% MoM / +2.9% YoY, right in line with expectations. Spending and income data were strong, keeping the Fed steady but leaving September ripe for volatility.
๐ฎ My Takeaway
Iโm bracing for September to deliver sharper swings than August. The setup favors a pullback unless $647โ648 is reclaimed quickly. If history rhymes, September could give back part of Augustโs gains, setting up prime buying opportunities into year-end. If CTA flows keep pressing, the market could surprise with consecutive upside months.
These are not predictions. Theyโre probability-weighted frameworks.
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