BABA 𝙄𝙎 𝙎𝙏𝙄𝙇𝙇 𝙐𝙉𝘿𝙀𝙍𝙑𝘼𝙇𝙐𝙀𝘿 👇🏻

$Alibaba(BABA)$

PRICE TARGET: $181 --> $189

POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +39% ✅

"Alibaba remains an attractive opportunity considering the 10% growth of China commerce and the 25%+ growth of Cloud"

ASSUMPTIONS:

LTM Revenue: $138.995B

(𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚𝘋/𝘊𝘕𝘠 = 𝟩.𝟤𝟢)

5Y Revenue CAGR: 8% --> 10%

2030 Profit Margin: 16%

2030 PE Ratio: 18

Shares outstanding: 2.393B

Shares reduction: 3% --> 2%/year

VALUATION:

Q1 2030 $BABA SHARE PRICE =

138.995 * (1.10)^5 * 0.16 * 18 /

[2.393 * (0.98)^5] = $298

You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Alibaba I want to use 12%

ACTUAL PRICE: $136

FAIR VALUE: $169

PRICE TARGET (1Y): $189

POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 39%

EXPECTED RETURNS: 17.0%/year

DIVIDEND YIELD: 0.8%

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