Option Witch | Figma is Expected to Show a 10% Swing Post-Earnings! This High-Volatility Strategy in Focus

Option Witch
09-03

Design software company $Figma(FIG)$ will release its first earnings report after the U.S. market closes on Wednesday, September 3 (ET). Consessus expects 2Q revenue of $248.71 million, up more than 40% from last year. Adjusted earnings per share could be 8 cents.

Option traders are pricing in a potential move of 10% in either direction following the earnings release. Investors may consider high-volatility options plays like straddle.

The stock made a spectacular debut on the NYSE on July 31, surging 250% to close at $115 and valuing the company at $56.3 billion. The next day, shares spiked to an intraday high of $142.92, marking the most valuable U.S. software IPO since 2021. Since then, however, the stock has lost half its value, closing at $65.57 on Tuesday with a $32 billion market cap.

Analysts' Views on Figma

Wall Street generally views Figma as a high-quality company with best-in-class products, but questions linger: Could artificial intelligence erode its business model? And is its growth potential already priced in?

“Figma is the industry standard for product design software,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Elizabeth Porter, who highlighted its ability to integrate workflows across designers, developers, and product managers. Morgan Stanley estimates Figma’s addressable market at $26 billion, leaving ample room for expansion. Still, Porter cautions that its premium valuation already reflects much of that growth.

AI remains a key debate. Generative AI could automate design tasks, challenging Figma’s seat-based pricing. Yet JPMorgan’s Mark Murphy argues AI could also be a tailwind, citing Figma’s AI tool, Figma Make. “A core long-term debate is whether Figma is on the right side of AI or the wrong side,” he wrote, adding that JPMorgan remains “bullish in the short to medium term.”

For now, most analysts are cautious. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan both rate the stock “hold,” with price targets of $80 and $65. Wolfe Research also sees the company as a leader in adoption and retention but assigns only a “sector perform” rating, citing valuation concerns.

One firm is more optimistic: William Blair’s Arjun Bhatia issued an “outperform” rating with a $96 target, suggesting Figma still has upside despite its rich valuation.

Options Traders Anticipate a 10% Move

The expected move for FIG options expiring on Sep 05, 2025 (2 days) (w) is ±$6.88 (10.36%), with a price range of $59.47 - $73.22.

Source: OptionChartsSource: OptionCharts

Open interest for Figma expiring this week showed moderately bearish sentiment as Call open interest totaled at 11,175, while Puts stood at 13,449. Put-Call open interest ratio reached 1.2.

Source: OptionChartsSource: OptionCharts

Open interest for $60 strike put options expiring this Friday are particularly high, with 1,899 unclosed contracts as of Sept 2.

Source: OptionChartsSource: OptionCharts

Option Strategy: Long Straddle

  • Structure: Buy ATM $65 Call + ATM $65 Put

$FIG Straddle 250905 65.0C/65.0P$

Source: Tiger Trade AppSource: Tiger Trade App

  • Cost: ~$7.30 per strike ($4.10 call + $3.20 put)

  • Breakeven:

    • Upside: $65 + $7.3 = $72.3 (11% above current price)

    • Downside: $65 - $7.3 = $57.7 (11% below current price)

$(FIG)$
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