Valuation Extremes Widen: GSV vs ULG Update

Weekly Macro Themes - 14 November 2025

And back to the usual note, here's the topics I covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes report:

1. Lending Standards: Global bank lending surveys show little change in lending standards, and improved loan demand; supporting the global growth reacceleration theme.

2. Credit Spreads: Credit spreads are at expensive/complacent levels, and while the macro aspect is somewhat benign for now, there are a few key areas to keep close monitoring.

3. Stocks vs Bonds: Valuations (absolute and relative), sentiment/positioning, and long-term cycles warn of downside risks to the stock/bond ratio; pay close attention to risk triggers here.

4. Global ex-US Equities: Bullish global ex-US equities on cheap absolute and relative valuations, strong technicals, and monetary tailwinds (central bank easing and weaker dollar).

5. GSV vs ULG Update: Continuing to monitor the widening valuation extremes between global vs US, small vs large, and value vs growth, with an eye on technicals (no turning point yet).

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Other helpful links:

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Lending Standards:</strong> Global bank lending surveys show little change in lending standards, and improved loan demand; supporting the global growth reacceleration theme.</p><p><strong>2. Credit Spreads:</strong> Credit spreads are at expensive/complacent levels, and while the macro aspect is somewhat benign for now, there are a few key areas to keep close monitoring.</p><p><strong>3. Stocks vs Bonds:</strong> Valuations (absolute and relative), sentiment/positioning, and long-term cycles warn of downside risks to the stock/bond ratio; pay close attention to risk triggers here.</p><p><strong>4. Global ex-US Equities:</strong> Bullish global ex-US equities on cheap absolute and relative valuations, strong technicals, and monetary tailwinds (central bank easing and weaker dollar).</p><p><strong>5. GSV vs ULG Update:</strong> Continuing to monitor the widening valuation extremes between global vs US, small vs large, and value vs growth, with an eye on technicals (no turning point yet).</p><h2 id=\"id_2889468570\" style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!</span></h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.</p><blockquote><p>Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD 5000* to get <strong>SGD 688 stock vouchers</strong>*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account:<strong> Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/link?target=https%3A%2F%2Fsg.tigermarketw.com%2Factivity2%2Fmarket%2F2025%2Fcontra-invitation%3Flang%3Den_US%26useAnimation%3Dtrue\" title=\"Click to access the activity\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Click to access the activity</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62e040c4d73c741662d709873cd4f330\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"250\"></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Other helpful links:</strong></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/367769452580952\" title=\"💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉\" class=\"\">💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉</a></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/06324754?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"How to open a CBA.\" class=\"\">How to open a CBA.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/how-to-link-CDP?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"How to link your CDP account.\" class=\"\">How to link your CDP account.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/contra-faq?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"Other FAQs on CBA.\" class=\"\">Other FAQs on CBA.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/invest/cash-boost\" title=\"Cash Boost Account Website.\" class=\"\">Cash Boost Account Website.</a></p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c1f52f0ec3a2f13f04e1a6a1b8cfcc6\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Weekly Macro Themes - 14 November 2025</p><p>And back to the usual note, here's the topics I covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes report:</p><p><strong>1. Lending Standards:</strong> Global bank lending surveys show little change in lending standards, and improved loan demand; supporting the global growth reacceleration theme.</p><p><strong>2. Credit Spreads:</strong> Credit spreads are at expensive/complacent levels, and while the macro aspect is somewhat benign for now, there are a few key areas to keep close monitoring.</p><p><strong>3. Stocks vs Bonds:</strong> Valuations (absolute and relative), sentiment/positioning, and long-term cycles warn of downside risks to the stock/bond ratio; pay close attention to risk triggers here.</p><p><strong>4. Global ex-US Equities:</strong> Bullish global ex-US equities on cheap absolute and relative valuations, strong technicals, and monetary tailwinds (central bank easing and weaker dollar).</p><p><strong>5. GSV vs ULG Update:</strong> Continuing to monitor the widening valuation extremes between global vs US, small vs large, and value vs growth, with an eye on technicals (no turning point yet).</p><h2 id=\"id_2889468570\" style=\"text-align: left;\"><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!</span></h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.</p><blockquote><p>Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD 5000* to get <strong>SGD 688 stock vouchers</strong>*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account:<strong> Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/link?target=https%3A%2F%2Fsg.tigermarketw.com%2Factivity2%2Fmarket%2F2025%2Fcontra-invitation%3Flang%3Den_US%26useAnimation%3Dtrue\" title=\"Click to access the activity\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Click to access the activity</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62e040c4d73c741662d709873cd4f330\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"250\"></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Other helpful links:</strong></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/367769452580952\" title=\"💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉\" class=\"\">💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉</a></p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/06324754?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"How to open a CBA.\" class=\"\">How to open a CBA.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/how-to-link-CDP?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"How to link your CDP account.\" class=\"\">How to link your CDP account.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/help/detail/contra-faq?_sasdk=fNDE0MTg2NzAwNTE0OTk2Mg\" title=\"Other FAQs on CBA.\" class=\"\">Other FAQs on CBA.</a> <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/sg/invest/cash-boost\" title=\"Cash Boost Account Website.\" class=\"\">Cash Boost Account Website.</a></p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0c1f52f0ec3a2f13f04e1a6a1b8cfcc6\"></p></body></html>","text":"Weekly Macro Themes - 14 November 2025 And back to the usual note, here's the topics I covered in the latest Weekly Macro Themes report: 1. Lending Standards: Global bank lending surveys show little change in lending standards, and improved loan demand; supporting the global growth reacceleration theme. 2. Credit Spreads: Credit spreads are at expensive/complacent levels, and while the macro aspect is somewhat benign for now, there are a few key areas to keep close monitoring. 3. Stocks vs Bonds: Valuations (absolute and relative), sentiment/positioning, and long-term cycles warn of downside risks to the stock/bond ratio; pay close attention to risk triggers here. 4. Global ex-US Equities: Bullish global ex-US equities on cheap absolute and relative valuations, strong technicals, and monetary tailwinds (central bank easing and weaker dollar). 5. GSV vs ULG Update: Continuing to monitor the widening valuation extremes between global vs US, small vs large, and value vs growth, with an eye on technicals (no turning point yet). For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account! Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD 5000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP. Click to access the activity Other helpful links: 💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉 How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/500326075552520","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1479,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/500326075552520"}