RabBird
11-26

$MSFT 20260618 480.0 PUT$ 


MSFT puts today 💰

But honestly… this Thanksgiving pump is looking more like a bull trap than a true reversal.

Over the past week, the market has been pricing in a rate cut narrative again — yet nothing has fundamentally changed:

• Fed officials remain data-driven, and the latest data doesn’t justify a cut.

• Inflation isn’t convincingly down, labor remains tight, and growth prints are still solid.

• If the Fed is genuinely following the numbers, the probability of a near-term cut should be very low — but markets chose to reprice optimism anyway.

That disconnect is exactly why my bear/put thesis still stands.

What’s even more interesting today:

📉 Volume is extremely low — a sharp contrast to the past few opens where we saw billions in turnover.

Low volume + a sudden bounce = usually the recipe for a holiday squeeze, not genuine strength.

My view:

This feels like positioning + low liquidity, not true bullish conviction. When liquidity returns after the holidays, we’ll see who’s swimming naked.

Staying cautious. Staying data-driven.

And yes — still holding puts elsewhere.

Market Rebound: Will Thanksgiving Week Break the Four-Year Pattern?
The S&P 500 index fell about 2% in November, marking its worst monthly performance since March, while market volatility surged. Citi’s Head of Wealth Management said there is still “some room” for the bull market, and this Wall Street giant has seen record inflows from wealthy clients this year. Last Friday, expectations for a rate cut shifted again, prompting an emergency Fed intervention that ultimately turned the market positive. Will this week see a “mindless” rally? With the Fed set to end QT in December, is this year’s decline over? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Comments

  • Valerie Archibald
    11-27
    Valerie Archibald
    MSFT up green after reclaiming its 200 DMA after being oversold and GOOGL in red being overbought adding a Trillion in in market in weeks. MSFT a Strong Buy in my opinion and GOOGL is a sell until it settles..
    • RabBird: 
      MSFT’s fundamentals are strong, but short-term price action doesn’t always align with forward earnings revisions. I’m just hedging the euphoric repricing we’ve seen the past few weeks. Let’s see how it plays out.
    • RabBird: 
      HValid points — 200DMA reclaim is definitely something traders look at.
      My angle is more macro-driven: liquidity injections + a near-zero probability of a December cut (if the Fed stays data-driven) means rallies can turn into bull traps quickly.
  • Venus Reade
    11-27
    Venus Reade
    Great opportunity to accumulate at today's price to keep multiple years. MSFT will appreciate sharply in the near future
    • RabBird: 
      Short-term correction #bearish on the company and market.
      Managing risk is key in an overextended market.
    • RabBird: 
      Long-term, I completely agree MSFT is one of the highest-quality names.
      My puts are purely a tactical play — volatility is unusually low, positioning is crowded, and the market has priced in rate-cut optimism that hasn't actually materialised in the data.
  • JackQuant
    11-27
    JackQuant
    Thanks for sharing your insights~
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