We saw Bitcoin crossing $90K, but the outflows on the total Bitcoin Spot ETF remains high, Global crypto ETPs see $1.9 billion in weekly outflows, adding to third-worst run since 2018, does it mean that Bitcoin could still face volatility and might goes below $90K?
So in this article, we would like to examine what the current flows likely mean — and how investors can strategically position around BTC-related volatility, without overreacting to the headline outflows.
Do Heavy Outflows Mean Bitcoin Must Fall Below $90K?
Not necessarily — but they do increase the probability of short-term volatility.
Here Is how to interpret the situation:
✔ Bitcoin at $90K + Large Outflows = A Divergence
BTC spot ETFs seeing $1.9B weekly outflows (3rd-worst run since 2018) means institutional money has been withdrawing.
Historically, ETF flows are one of the strongest indicators of directional conviction from large players.
When prices remain high despite outflows, it suggests:
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Retail demand, global demand, or derivatives leverage is holding up price, not long-term spot buyers.
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This often leads to fragile price action, where BTC can quickly correct.
✔ BTC at highs + Negative ETP flows = Higher downside probability
This environment increases the probability of:
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Sharp pullbacks (5–15%)
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Stop-hunts
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Volatility spikes around macro catalysts (Fed decisions, CPI, ETF flow shifts)
Bottom Line
Bitcoin can trade below $90K again — not because structural demand is gone, but because current price strength is not fully supported by ETF inflows, making any rally more vulnerable.
Another way we can look at is the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin Network based on 7DMA, we are seeing a slight pickup but then it went down again.
Next, we looked at the transactions on the Bitcoin Network based on 7DMA, which is showing similar pattern, if you noticed, when Bitcoin prices are trading above the $100K mark, we could see a stronger transaction trend on the Bitcoin network.
How Investors Can Take Advantage of This Volatility
Below are practical, tactical ideas — not financial advice — but commonly used strategies during high-volatility crypto phases.
For Bitcoin Itself
1. Use a “Buy the Dip” Laddering Strategy
Volatility = entry opportunities. Investors often set staggered buy zones such as:
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$87K
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$84K
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$80–82K
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$75K major support
This avoids timing the peak and benefits from forced liquidations.
2. Sell Covered Calls (if using options on BTC/ETFs)
On crypto ETFs / BTC derivatives:
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Selling calls above $95K–$100K can generate yield during consolidation phases.
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Works best when implied volatility is high (as it is now).
3. Hedged Longs (Long Spot + Short Perps)
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Capture funding rate yields
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Reduce directional downside risk This is how institutional desks farm volatility without taking directional BTC exposure.
Bitcoin-Related Stocks That Benefit From Volatility
When BTC swings violently, beta-stocks (miners, exchanges, chip makers) move even more.
Below are the categories and tickers investors commonly monitor.
A. High-Beta Miners (Best for Trading Volatility)
These typically move 2–5× BTC’s percentage swings.
Top names to watch
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Riot Platforms (RIOT)
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Terawulf (WULF)
Strategy:
Buy dips when BTC sells off 5–10%
Miners often drop 15–30% in the same move
Sell into short-term rebounds or when BTC reclaims key levels
Why they work: Their margins swing massively with BTC pricing and mining difficulty.
B. Exchanges (Earnings tied to volatility spikes)
Exchanges benefit not from price direction but trading volume.
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ – highest beta among large-caps
Robinhood (HOOD) – secondary exposure to crypto trading volume
When to buy: During periods of elevated volatility (like now) because volume = revenue.
C. Crypto “Infrastructure” or GPU Plays
Indirect but correlated exposure:
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ – not BTC-linked but benefits from GPU demand (AI + crypto cycles often correlate)
AMD (AMD) – similar dynamics
Block Inc. (XYZ) – cash app + BTC transaction revenue
These offer lower beta but steadier exposure.
Tactical Trading Framework for Bitcoin-Linked Stocks
Here is a practical, repeatable framework traders often use:
1. Map BTC Levels → Plan Stock Trades
For example:
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BTC dips from $90K → $86K → miners typically drop −10 to −18%
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BTC reclaims $90K → miners bounce +8 to +15%
2. Avoid holding miners during periods of:
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Falling BTC hash price
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Rising network difficulty
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Disinflation in transaction fees
(BTC ETFs give purer exposure when unsure.)
3. Use Options on Miners
Because miner volatility is extremely high, traders often use:
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Call spreads (bullish but hedged)
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Put spreads (to bet on downside with defined risk)
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Short-dated calls when BTC rebounds sharply
Does BTC risk falling below $90K? Yes — outflows + high price = increased short-term vulnerability. It doesn't mean the bull cycle is over, but the next weeks may be choppy.
How to take advantage?
Ladder buys on BTC dips
Generate yield via covered calls
Trade volatility via miners (RIOT/MARA/CLSK)
Use COIN/HOOD for volatility-based revenue exposure
Keep NVDA/AMD/XYZ as “lower beta” satellite plays
In the next section, we would like to share a high-level, illustrative level — outline a short-term “price-path simulation + risk/reward matrix for Bitcoin (BTC) and two representative high-beta “Bitcoin-proxy” stocks: Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA).
This is not predictive forecasting, but a scenario framework built on historical volatility, beta, and plausible scenarios. Use this to think about possible outcomes — not as a trading signal.
Key Assumptions & Modeling Approach
Historical studies show BTC still has relatively high volatility compared to traditional assets — but volatility has moderated somewhat post-ETF era.
We assume BTC continues to behave roughly like a “fat-tailed” asset (i.e. possibility for sharp moves up/down), which many academic simulations model using Monte Carlo / geometric-Brownian-motion or variants thereof.
For miner stocks/“proxy” equities (like RIOT, MARA), past data shows these have much higher volatility and beta relative to Bitcoin — meaning they tend to amplify BTC’s swings (both up and down).
We run three short-term “paths” (baseline / bearish / bullish) over a 3-month horizon, to reflect: continued consolidation; a sharp pullback; or a rebound rally.
Simulated Scenarios: 3-Month Forecast Window
*These multipliers for RIOT and MARA are rough, based on their historical “beta / volatility amplification” relative to BTC. For example: a moderate BTC move (±10%) could translate to ±20–30% for miners; larger BTC swings get amplified more. This aligns with documented patterns of “miners swing 2–4× BTC moves.”
Interpretation:
In a “calm” BTC environment (baseline), miners still see material volatility — meaning long-term holders get risk even in “stable” BTC periods.
In a downside move (BTC falling 15–25%), miners could see steep declines — risking 30%+ over a few months.
In a rally, miners could reward handsomely (40–60%+), but upside requires BTC strength, plus network / mining-cost tailwinds.
Risk / Reward Matrix (for a hypothetical 100-unit investment in each asset)
Risk/Reward Observations:
BTC as a “core” holding offers less asymmetric risk compared to miner stocks: it can dip, but doesn’t carry business-model or operational risk.
Miner stocks (RIOT, MARA) offer leveraged exposure — big potential gains if BTC rallies + favorable miner-specific conditions (costs, hash rate, halving cycles). But downside is amplified: drawdowns are often steeper than BTC’s.
Miner equities also carry extra risks: operational costs, energy prices, mining difficulty, halving effects — not just price of BTC. As some analysis puts it, miner equities are “ultra-high beta instruments with extreme volatility” and sometimes “disappointing long-term returns vs BTC.”
What This Means Practically: Use Cases by Investor Type
Long-term, risk-aware investors → Holding BTC directly tends to offer the best risk-adjusted exposure. The downside is relatively controlled, with upside potential tied to broader adoption/hype cycles.
Tactical / speculative traders → Miner stocks (RIOT, MARA) may offer attractive “swing” trades: buy miners on BTC dips; sell into rallies. Great for short-term plays — but only if you manage risk (tight stop-loss, position sizing).
Diversified “core-satellite” approach → Keep BTC as “core,” and allocate a small satellite position to high-beta proxies for potential big moves, while limiting overall portfolio risk.
Major Caveats & Why This Is Only Illustrative
This simulation does not account for fundamentals — e.g. mining difficulty, energy prices, cost structure, halving events — which can drastically change miner stocks’ profitability independent of BTC price.
Correlation between BTC and miner stocks is not perfect: sometimes miners underperform even when BTC rallies (due to operational issues, dilution, negative news).
The distribution of returns is “fat-tailed”: extreme events (regulatory news, macro shocks, network disruptions) can push outcomes far outside simulated ranges.
Simulations assume volatility continues, which may not hold if the market moves into a lower-volatility, consolidation regime (as some argue post-ETF era).
Summary
Significant volatility often persists when price action diverges from fund flows.
Can Bitcoin Trade Below $90K? The divergence between Bitcoin's price hitting $90K and the $1.9 billion in weekly ETP outflows suggests a "tug-of-war" between institutional profit-taking and retail enthusiasm. While prices are high, the sustained outflows (the third-worst run since 2018) remove a key layer of buying support. Analysts see this as a signal that Bitcoin could churn or retest support levels near $82,000–$85,000. If the $90K psychological resistance holds firm while outflows continue, a short-term correction below this mark is highly probable before any march to $100K.
Trading "High Beta" Stocks Investors can exploit this volatility using "high beta" stocks—companies that typically move 2-3x more aggressively than Bitcoin itself.
The Aggressive "Treasury" Play: MicroStrategy (MSTR) acts as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. If you believe the dip to <$90K is a temporary buying opportunity, MSTR often yields higher percentage gains during the recovery.
The Mining Plays: Miners like Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK) are highly sensitive to price swings. Investors often "swing trade" these: buying when Bitcoin hits technical support (e.g., $82K) and selling during relief rallies.
The Infrastructure Play: Coinbase (COIN) benefits from the volatility itself (trading fees) rather than just price appreciation, making it a potentially more stable hedge during choppy market conditions.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Bitcoin could possibly stay above $90K despite seeing significant outflows and volatility or this could be only short-term and we might see Bitcoin going below $90K again?
@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
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