🚀 Intel Rallies 100% YTD — But Is This Just the Beginning of the Comeback Story?

Intel just surged another 8%+ after reports that it will supply chips for Apple — a partnership the market thought was dead forever.

And suddenly, Intel at +100% YTD doesn’t look like a fluke anymore…

It looks like a full-scale resurrection. 🔥

So the big question everyone is asking:

👉 At $40, do you sell into strength? Or hold for the real upside?

👉 Has the turnaround already peaked, or are we witnessing the opening chapters of Intel 2.0?

Let’s break it down with a deep dive worthy of a research desk — but packaged for maximum impact. ⚡

⸻

🟢 1. The Market Mispriced Intel for YEARS — Now It’s Catching Up

For almost a decade, Intel was treated as a dinosaur:

• Lost Apple

• Lost manufacturing leadership

• Lost datacenter momentum

• Lost AI narrative

• Lost investor trust

But markets often over-punish laggards — and under-price turnarounds.

This year, the market finally realized:

➡️ Intel isn’t dead

➡️ The foundry revival is real

➡️ Its cost structure is being rebuilt from the ground up

➡️ And geopolitics is basically forcing customers to diversify away from TSMC

The 100% YTD rally isn’t just hype — it’s repricing of survival → relevance → opportunity.

⸻

🔥 2. The Apple Chip-Supply Rumor Changes the Entire Narrative

Let’s be clear:

Intel winning ANY Apple order is massive.

But winning back chip supply?

That’s industry shockwave-level news. 🌪️

It means:

• Apple trusts Intel’s roadmap

• Intel’s 18A and foundry capabilities are now credible

• Intel is officially back in the premium-client conversation

• The “Intel can’t compete” narrative is now officially dead

This is the kind of catalyst that doesn’t create a 1-day pop.

It creates a multi-quarter re-rating.

⸻

🧠 3. Intel’s Transformation Is the Biggest Since the 80s — And Wall Street Underestimates It

Pat Gelsinger isn’t doing a normal turnaround.

He’s doing a total strategic reboot:

🏭 1. Moving from chip designer → full global foundry

Positioning itself as the Western alternative to TSMC.

This alone is a trillion-dollar geopolitical opportunity.

🤖 2. Re-entering the AI accelerator race

Gaudi, Falcon Shores, and future architectures aren’t competitive yet —

but 2025–2027 could be the surprise comeback era.

🔌 3. Deep cost restructuring

Intel is cutting fat everywhere — improving margins faster than analysts model.

🇺🇸 4. US government contracts + CHIPS Act tailwinds

Intel is literally becoming a national strategic asset.

Few companies get this type of policy backing.

This is not the Intel of 2020.

It’s a completely different beast.

⸻

🟡 4. So… Is There More Upside From $40?

Here’s the honest, high-conviction breakdown:

🔹 BULL CASE ($55–$65 in 2025)

• Apple wins confirmed

• Foundry gains major client share

• AI chips improve vs NVIDIA

• Margins recover

• 18A ramps smoothly

• US/EU manufacturing demand spikes

This is the Intel 2.0 renaissance scenario.

🔹 BASE CASE ($45–$52)

A reasonable 2025 range, assuming:

• Foundry execution continues

• Datacenter stabilizes

• Margins climb

• AI narrative improves gradually

🔹 BEAR CASE ($34–$38)

• Execution stumbles

• 18A delays

• Foundry misses

• Market shifts back to NVIDIA/AMD dominance

Risk remains real — turnarounds are never smooth.