NetEase 3Q25: The Market Is Sleeping on a 25% Deferred Revenue Spike — 2026 Could Surprise Everyone

郑凯文宝宝

$网易-S(09999)$

NetEase’s 3Q25 looked “fine” at first glance —

but one number changes everything:

🔥 Deferred revenue +25% YoY

This is future profit already locked in and waiting to be recognized.

If you follow China gaming, you know:

Deferred revenue spikes → earnings beat in the next 1–2 quarters.

And the setup looks strong:

🎮 PC games +33% YoY after Blizzard’s return

📱 Mobile still growing with legacy blockbusters + new momentum

🚀 A loaded 2026 pipeline:

Forgotten Seas, Unbounded, Starry Abyss, Returning Tang —

multiple titles capable of becoming annual hits.

Profitability is inflecting too:

Non-GAAP NP +26.7% YoY

Youdao: 5th consecutive profitable quarter

Cloud Music: stable users, expanding library

Analysts remain BUY with TP US$165 / HK$256 —

but if the deferred revenue turns into real profit faster than expected,

2026 earnings may catch the market completely off guard.

So the real question:

Is NTES a stealth earnings story hiding in plain sight?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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SG Visual Research
12-10
SG Visual Research
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If you follow China gaming, you know: Deferred revenue spikes → earnings beat in the next 1–2 quarters. And the setup looks strong: 🎮 PC games +33% YoY after Blizzard’s return 📱 Mobile still growing with legacy blockbusters + new momentum 🚀 A loaded 2026 pipeline: Forgotten Seas, Unbounded, Starry Abyss, Returning Tang — multiple titles capable of becoming annual hits. Profitability is inflecting too: Non-GAAP NP +26.7% YoY Youdao: 5th consecutive profitable quarter Cloud Music: stable users, expanding library Analysts remain BUY with TP US$165 / HK$256 — but if the deferred revenue turns into real profit faster than expected, 2026 earnings may catch the market completely off guard. 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