Nvidia China Sales Back On: What Traders Should Expect Next Week

Trump's approval for Nvidia to resume H200 sales to China has injected fresh energy into a cooling AI sector. The after hours bounce was small, but the signal was big. This is the first real policy break in months, and traders now have a clear catalyst to anchor short term direction.

Below is the clean breakdown of how the market may trade Nvidia in the coming sessions.

1. Why This Catalyst Matters

China demand was never the issue. Policy blockage was.

H200 carries higher margins and stronger upgrade cycles than the previous A series chips.

Data center budgets for 2025 are still expanding, not contracting.

The approval lowers headline risk and reduces fear premium in the entire AI basket.

This does not guarantee a new rally, but it removes one of the biggest obstacles.

2. Key Levels to Watch for NVDA

185: Current battle zone. Break above signals renewed momentum.

192: First resistance where sellers may appear.

199 to 205: Major reaction zone. A breakout here would flip short term trend from corrective to bullish.

175: Support. Losing this suggests the China headline effect is fading.

3. Scenario Map for Next Week

Scenario A: Sentiment Extension Rally

Mkt reaction: Buyers defend 185 and rotate back into AI megacaps.

Probability: Medium

Target: 195 then 202

Who benefits: NVDA, SMCI, AVGO, ASML, AMD

Trade approach: Buy shares on dips. Short term calls or diagonal spreads.

Scenario B: Volatility Rejection

Mkt reaction: Nvidia pops early but fails at 192 as funds remain cautious into macro data.

Probability: Medium high

Target: 178

Who benefits: Defensive tech, mega cap rotation

Trade approach: Put spreads or selling call credit spreads.

Scenario C: Policy Fade and Consolidation

Mkt reaction: Market shrugs off the news and trades sideways waiting for next big data.

Probability: High

Target: 180 to 188 range

Trade approach: Iron condors or wait for cleaner breakouts.

4. Two Practical Trade Ideas

A. Share Strategy

Buy near 182 to 185, stop at 175, target 200.

Rationale: Clean R:R with catalyst driven momentum.

B. Options Strategy (Short Term)

Bull call spread

Buy 190 call

Sell 205 call

Reason: Captures upside if Nvidia rides a fresh sentiment wave without overpaying for premium.

5. Final Take

The China green light does not solve every Nvidia risk, but it improves sentiment exactly when AI fear was peaking. Next week will depend less on headlines and more on whether buyers are willing to defend higher lows.

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades.