From my perspective, tonight’s move will hinge less on the 25 bps cut and more on Powell’s tone. A slightly dovish message could spark a quick gap-up in equities and precious metals, though I still expect an early fade as markets digest the details. Positioning is elevated, so any pop may be short-lived.
If Powell sounds hawkish, the reaction may actually be muted since the bond market already expects it. Any dip in stocks or metals would likely be modest, and I’d view that kind of pullback as a potential buying window, especially with easing still on the table for 2025.
For the 2026 dots, I’d see them as guidance on the Fed’s long-run comfort zone, not a strict plan. Fewer cuts into 2026 would simply signal caution during a soft-landing phase, meaning more near-term volatility but still a constructive medium-term outlook.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments