$Broadcom(AVGO)$ Markets flipped the script yesterday with a classic V-shaped rebound that had hearts racing β S&P 500 opened in the red but surged to close up 0.2% at 6,859.42, marking its sixth gain in seven sessions and nudging to a fresh record high amid easing bets that refuse to die. This shake-off from early weakness came hot on the heels of Broadcom's Q4 earnings beat, where revenue hit $18 billion (up 28% YoY) and EPS crushed at $1.95 (beating $1.86 est), with AI chip sales set to double in the current quarter β a direct antidote to Oracle's capex-fueled flop that tanked its shares 13% on $16.1 billion revenue (just shy of $16.15 billion est) and sparked fresh AI bubble fears. Now, with the Fed's 25bps cut landing to 3.5%-3.75% and QT's liquidity lava flowing trillions, December's historical +0.8% seasonality could kick in full force, paving a Santa Rally path to 7,100+ if PCE Friday cools inflation whispers. But with dot plot divisions signaling just one 25bps nudge in 2026 and hawkish vibes lurking, is this rebound the real deal or a festive fakeout? Dive into the drivers, dot discord, and if risk assets keep rising or risk a reversal β emojis exploding, insights intense. ππ
Rebound Resilience Revealed: From Oracle Ordeal to Broadcom Balm πͺοΈπ‘οΈ
Yesterday's V-turn started grim with S&P dipping 0.5% on Oracle's capex crush β spending jumped 19% to $2.5 billion amid Stargate expansions, fanning overbuild fears with utilization at 30% and backlog blues from OpenAI's $300B limbo. But Broadcom's beat flipped the narrative: AI revenue projections for triple-digit 2026 growth on Google's TPU open-up and hyperscaler $3T wave eased the panic, pulling semis like Nvidia up 1.5% in sympathy. This resilience echoes November's 2.5% dip flipping to December magic, with thin volumes amplifying swings but QT's $1T flood buffering downside. Sentiment's shifting bullish on 87% cut confirmation, but dot plot's divided drama β 7 hawks voting zero cuts in 2026 β hints pause pressure that could cap upside at 6,900 if inflation vigilance reigns.
Four Fiery Factors Fanning the December Flame π§¨π§
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Broadcom's AI Antidote: Triple-Digit Growth Crushes Capex Fears πͺπ§ Q4's $18B revenue (up 28%) and $1.95 EPS beat, with AI chips set to double, counters Oracle's miss β hyperscaler spends like Meta's $400B fuel interconnect demand, projecting FY2026 rev $200B+.
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Fed's Dot Division Drama: One Cut 2026 Median β Pause or Pivot? βοΈπ 25bps trim aligns, but dot dispersion from 0-150bps with 7 zero hawks screams caution β Powell's presser teased QE openness for vertical pops, but sticky core PCE at 2.6% caps at flat hold.
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Oracle's Overbuild Overhang: $16.1B Rev Edge Est but Bloat Bites ππ° EPS $2.26 (up 54%) crushed, OCI up 34% to $2.8B on AI triples, but capex spike and backlog delays tanked 13% β signals chain-wide doubts, but Broadcom's optics edge stabilizes.
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December Seasonality Spark: +0.8% Avg Gains Eye Santa Squeeze ππ Historical low-start flips to strong finishes (85% hit rate) β thin volumes + QT flood amplify, with PCE est 2.3% core unlocking 4% surge if cool.
S&P Rebound Rhythms: December V-Shaped Patterns Table π πΎ
Bull Banquet: December Effect Detonates Rally Rampage β Risk Assets Rise Relentless! ππ₯
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Broadcom balm blasts: AI double crushes Oracle panic, hyperscaler $3T wave fuels semis 15%+ pops.
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Fed flood fire: 25bps cut + QT $1T lava unleashes risk-on, dot dove hints vertical equities 5%.
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AI amplification: Earnings beats amplify momentum, Mag7 moonshot adds nitro for S&P 7,100.
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Seasonality squeeze: +0.8% avg gains kick in, short covers catapult 3% on PCE cool.
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Global glow: U.S. resilience pulls EM along, tariff thaw whispers boost 2%.
Bear Binge: Hawkish Hold Havoc β Pullback Persists as Pause Pressure Pounds! π»π
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Dot division doom: 7 zero-cut hawks pause easing, USD spikes to 101, equities crater 3%.
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Oracle overhang overload: Capex bloat tanks chain sentiment 10%, global slowdown crims 5%.
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Powell hardball: Vigilance stalls risk-on, VIX to 30 spikes sour 5%.
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Crowded crash: Overconfidence unwinds on hot PCE >2.3%, 4% flush ensues.
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Earnings edge erodes: Misses drag AI 10%, tariff ghosts crimp EM 5%.
Festive Fire Verdict: V-Rebound's Vibe Ignites December Effect β AI Beats + Cuts Crush Doubts, Risk Assets Rise Roaring to Santa Glory! π―π€
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