Navigating Post-Rate Cut Volatility

SmartReversals
08:58

The anticipated volatility outlined in last week’s Weekly Compass played out exactly as expected. Price action oscillated around the Central Weekly Levels (CWL) for major indices: $6,855 for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $25,559 for $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , $684 for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , and $622 for $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ . We saw a breakout attempt on Wednesday following the confirmation of the rate cut, which was quickly met with a choppy Thursday. By Friday, the market reversed rapidly; a classic signature of a rate decision week.

However, a divergence emerged early in the week: both the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and the $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ showed bullish strength, suggesting a potential rotation under the surface. Despite this, Friday’s decline was broad, exposing weakness across both the stock market and the crypto space. This signals a need for caution. As we move into the second half of December, where seasonality typically favors the bulls; it is crucial to analyze price action and critical levels carefully. Today, we will assess current conditions and the implied risks for the short term.

High Probability Setups: A 78% Success Rate

Over the last few weeks, the Weekly Compass has featured a new section: “High Probability Setups” This summarized guide helps premium subscribers navigate the 30+ securities we analyze weekly by highlighting the absolute top picks. Three weeks ago, we identified five strong setups; in the last two weeks, we found nine. Today, we are watching nine must-see setups.

The performance speaks for itself. The table below details whether each called setup was bullish (long) or bearish (short). Out of 23 trades shared, 18 have successfully reached their bullish or bearish targets, some of them surpassing them. This 78% success rate serves as a transparent transparency report and a clear message: it’s time to upgrade to the paid plan.

The momentum map, my carefully selected technical indicators, and a solid grasp of fundamentals form the essential combination for success. Crucially, this strategy relies on Support and Resistance Levels, specifically the Central Weekly Level (CWL), which defines momentum and validates a bullish or bearish thesis depending on whether the price holds above or below it.

When a trade moves against expectations, the CWL plays a vital role in signaling invalidation. This gives traders a clear reference point to set stop-losses based on their individual risk tolerance.

Today’s High Probability Setups feature 6 bullish and 3 bearish opportunities ready to be monetized. For each, the CWL acts as the line in the sand. For example, when $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ dropped -4.3%, the CWL at $662 served as a stop reference; a trader exiting slightly below that level would have limited the loss to roughly -1.6% considering Friday’s close, rather than absorbing the full drawdown. The same logic applies to short positions: if the CWL resistance is breached, the setup is invalidated.

For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now

Find out more here.

Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.

Click to access the activity

Other helpful links:

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment