I don't think there has ever been a bigger RED flag than $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ CEO Dudum retweeting a known charlatan stock pumper course seller.
This action alone should warrant his termination, but he did it a day before selling shares.
Yet, HIMS investors completely ignored this obvious red flag because they were watching through rose-colored glasses.
However, this was not the only red flag the company did:
- Giving out an aggressive 2030 guidance was a red flag. Hims is not a mature company to know its sales 5 years in advance. Any CEO of a fast-growing company who can tell their sales 5 years from now, is either
1 lying
2 delusional
3 or trying to pump the stock.
- Expanding internationally, when the US TAM is 100x, the global TAM is a clear indication of desperation. And this goes back to the first point, they gave guidance that they now can't meet, and are resorting to desperate means to get there.
- This latest GLP1 pill action is completely stupid, illegal, and reckless. There is ZERO chance that this whole situation will lead to a new and expanded partnership with $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$
- Having to pull a product the same week you released it because the regulator recommends a criminal investigation is complete malpractice.
The Chief Legal Officer should resign. How did he let this go through? This was so predictable.
My Prediction:
1. After the lawsuits from NVO, FDA, and DOJ, HIMS will reach a settlement and stop selling compounded semaglutide completely.
2. This means that the number of subscribers will decrease.
3. Negative publicity coming from this whole ordeal will lead to cancellations in other verticals.
4. 2026 revenue growth will be negative, while in 2027 revenues will plummet, going back to 2023-24 levels.
5. Most profits come from GLP1s, so without them $HIMS will return to losses in 2026.
6. $HIMS stock price will go back to $5.
7. Dudum will "resign to focus on his family" and enjoy the hundreds of millions he made by selling shares at the top.
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