這是甚麼東西
02-11

1. Coinbase is Successfully Diversifying


The most critical metric in this report isn't necessarily the 5% drop in total revenue, but the resilience of the Subscription and Services segment ($723M).


Why it matters: Historically, Coinbase's stock price was extremely volatile because it relied almost entirely on trading fees. If the market crashed, their revenue crashed.


The Shift: By bolstering revenue through USDC interest income, staking, and custody fees, Coinbase is becoming less dependent on retail traders buying and selling every day. A $7.2B projection for 2025 suggests Wall Street is beginning to view them as a mature financial infrastructure company rather than just an exchange.


2. The "Leverage Flush" Explained


The text mentions that analysts see a bottom forming because "leverage flushes out."


What this means: When Bitcoin hits all-time highs, many traders borrow money (leverage) to bet on the price going higher. When the price dips, these traders get liquidated (forced to sell), which causes a cascade of selling that drives the price down sharply.


The Bullish Signal: Once those over-leveraged traders are wiped out ("flushed"), the selling pressure usually exhausts itself. If "whales" (large holders) are buying at $69K, it suggests smart money believes the asset is undervalued at this level, creating a strong support floor.


3. The Disconnect: Revenue vs. Price


It is interesting to note the correlation between Coinbase's "weaker trading volumes" and Bitcoin hovering near $69K.


Usually, high prices attract retail interest (FOMO), which drives volume.


The fact that prices are relatively high ($69K is near the 2021 peak) but volume is down suggests a "wait-and-see" approach from retail investors. The market may be waiting for a catalyst—such as regulatory clarity or macroeconomic shifts—to reignite active trading.


Key Question for the Feb 12 Call:

Investors will likely be listening closely to hear if Coinbase management attributes the volume drop to market fatigue or loss of market share to competitors (like offshore exchanges or ETFs).



Brazil 1M BTC Plan: 5% Bounce Sustainable?
Bitcoin rebounded over 5% after reports that Brazil’s Congress is proposing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, targeting accumulation of 1 million BTC over five years. At current supply levels, that would represent roughly 5% of total circulating Bitcoin — a headline-grabbing figure. However, the proposal still faces political, fiscal, and execution hurdles. Would steady sovereign accumulation tighten supply and reduce float? Is this marginal compared with ETF flows and macro risk cycles? Is this rebound the start of a structural bid or just relief in a fragile trend?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment