Apple Shares Plunge on "Black Thursday" — How to Navigate Risk and Opportunity With Options

Option Witch
02-13 13:16

Shares of $Apple(AAPL)$ tumbled 5% on Thursday, marking their steepest one-day decline since early April 2025. The stock closed at $261.73. The selloff followed reports that development of a revamped Siri has hit fresh hurdles.

Technology journalist Mark Gurman wrote that Apple’s long-planned upgrade to its Siri virtual assistant has encountered technical issues in recent weeks of testing, potentially delaying several highly anticipated features. The company had intended to roll out the enhancements as part of its iOS 26.4 update scheduled for March, but is now considering phasing them into subsequent releases.

That could mean some features may not arrive until iOS 26.5 in May or even iOS 27 in September. The delay marks the second major setback for the new Siri since Apple first announced the upgrade in 2024.

Separately, after Apple’s News platform was accused of censoring conservative media outlets, Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chairman Andrew Ferguson called on Chief Executive Tim Cook to review potential political bias in the platform’s operations.

In a letter posted Wednesday on X, Ferguson wrote: “Recent reports suggest that Apple News systematically prioritizes content from left-leaning media while suppressing outlets with more conservative viewpoints.”

Crosscurrents: Bullish Drivers and Downside Risks

On the positive side, Apple’s services segment remains a key source of upside, supported by sustained revenue growth and superior margins. The division has become a central growth engine and profit pillar for the company. Ongoing large-scale share repurchases and a steady dividend policy continue to underpin the stock.

Investors are also betting that the next-generation iPhone, expected to feature on-device artificial intelligence capabilities, could trigger a fresh upgrade cycle — potentially serving as a catalyst for both earnings momentum and valuation re-rating. A recovery in demand from China and other emerging markets would further bolster the company’s revenue trajectory.

However, near-term volatility and pullback risks remain. Apple’s valuation still stands above historical averages, leaving it sensitive to shifts in interest rate expectations and broader risk sentiment. A rebound in rate expectations driven by sticky inflation, or renewed regulatory scrutiny of large-cap technology firms, could weigh on multiples.

Intensifying competition in China, currency fluctuations and potential global supply chain disruptions also add to fundamental uncertainty. Absent a timely acceleration in revenue and profit growth to justify current valuations, the stock could remain under pressure.

Options Strategy Analysis

Implied volatility (IV) in Apple’s options market is currently elevated relative to recent levels, suggesting premiums are expensive. In such an environment, spread strategies can help manage both cost and risk exposure.

1. Bullish Strategy: Constructive on Services and AI, but Mindful of Valuation and Volatility

Strategy 1: Bull Call Spread

Structure:
Buy one Feb. 20, 2026 $260 call and sell one Feb. 20, 2026 $275 call.

$AAPL Vertical 260220 260.0C/275.0C$

  • Net cost: approximately $5.13 per share

  • Maximum profit: $987 per spread (if stock ≥ $275 at expiration)

  • Maximum loss: $513 per spread (if stock ≤ $260 at expiration)

  • Breakeven: $265.13

Rationale:
For investors constructive on the medium- to long-term outlook but seeking to reduce upfront premium outlay, the bull call spread caps both upside and downside within a defined range. By selling the higher strike call, traders offset part of the cost, making the strategy suitable for expectations of moderate upside rather than an outsized rally.

2. Bearish Strategy: Hedging Against Technical Pullbacks and Valuation Pressure

Strategy 2: Bear Put Spread

Structure:
Buy one Feb. 20, 2026 $255 put and sell one Feb. 20, 2026 $245 put.

$AAPL Vertical 260220 245.0P/255.0P$

  • Net cost: approximately $1.54 per share

  • Maximum profit: $846 per spread (if stock ≤ $245 at expiration)

  • Maximum loss: $154 per spread (if stock ≥ $255 at expiration)

  • Breakeven: $253.46

Rationale:
This structure suits investors anticipating a moderate pullback or range-bound trading. The bear put spread offers defined downside exposure at a limited cost, while capping maximum loss.

Risk Disclosure:
Options trading involves substantial risk. The analysis above is based on market data at a specific point in time, and profit-and-loss figures are approximate. Investors should adjust strategies according to real-time volatility, liquidity conditions and individual risk tolerance, and consider using limit orders to manage execution prices.

$(AAPL)$
Apple Worst Single-day Drop! Would Siri Delay Push Stock Down to $240?
Apple plunged 5%, marking its worst single-day drop since April 2025, after reports that its long-awaited AI-powered Siri upgrade may be delayed to May or later. The company said features are still planned for 2026, possibly rolling out in phases. At the same time, the FTC chair sent a letter to CEO Tim Cook requesting a review of Apple News’ service terms and content recommendations. Would Apple head to $240 or lower?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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