jessica_twt
02-19 22:36

In the latest U.S. stock market pullback, $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ stock stood out.

Its defensive profile, stable cash flow, and accelerating e-commerce and advertising growth kept shares hitting new highs. Yet on social media, it’s almost invisible — people love sharing Costco finds, but rarely talk about Walmart. Capital markets reward it, while consumer sentiment stays lukewarm.

$Costco(COST)$ naturally attracts buzz: paid membership builds identity, treasure-hunt shopping adds excitement, and Kirkland gives shoppers a sense of smart spending. Renewal rates stay above 90%, and the brand has become a middle-class lifestyle symbol.

Walmart, by contrast, is about everyday essentials — broad selection, standardized stores, and low prices. It emphasizes efficiency and convenience over experience: practical, reliable, but not especially exciting.

In markets, both have outperformed retail peers over the past decade. Costco slightly leads (~23% annualized returns vs. Walmart’s ~21% from 2016–2026, with lower volatility). But since 2024, Walmart has built new growth engines in e-commerce, ads, and omnichannel logistics. FY2025 revenue reached about $680B (~3× Costco), with e-commerce surpassing $100B and fast delivery growing rapidly. Meanwhile, Walmart Connect ads have become a high-margin driver, now contributing nearly one-third of adjusted operating profit — making Walmart increasingly resemble an e-commerce platform rather than a traditional retailer.

Walmart Guidance Misses, $30B Buyback: Stock Peaks?
Walmart posted $190.66B Q4 revenue (vs $190.58B est.) and $0.74 EPS (vs $0.73 est.), while announcing a fresh $30B buyback. Yet guidance disappointed: FY2027 EPS is projected at $2.75–$2.85, below the $2.97 consensus. Shares fell over 2% premarket. With a $1T market cap and strong defensive flows, Walmart has been a clear winner in the AI-driven rotation toward supply chain efficiency and essentials. But slowing earnings momentum and macro uncertainty raise questions. Is this consolidation after a massive run? Or an early signal that defensive leadership is peaking?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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