In February, the SaaS sector saw roughly $285 billion in market cap erased, yet $Figma(FIG)$ Q4 revenue growth accelerated from 38% to 40%, achieving counter-cyclical reacceleration amid broad industry slowdown. Despite strong earnings, the stock surged 16% in after-hours trading before reversing and closing off highs. Figma is still down 36% year-to-date.
A key metric: 136% net dollar retention (NDR), the highest in nearly 10 quarters. This indicates existing customers are not only staying but meaningfully increasing spending.
AI monetization is another critical variable. The company plans to begin charging for AI features in March, supported by high engagement from large enterprise customers. Management emphasized that AI will enhance—not replace—Figma’s core design workflow, reinforcing a closed-loop between tooling capability and creative output.
Risks remain:
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Elevated stock-based compensation (SBC), creating dilution pressure
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Rising AI compute costs, with gross margin declining from 92% to 86%
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Potential selling pressure from lockup expirations
Overall, Figma appears to be undergoing a valuation reset of a high-quality asset. If AI monetization stabilizes margins while sustaining 30%+ growth, its roughly 10x EV/Revenue multiple may have room for re-rating. A return to a $20B valuation will depend on whether profitability scales alongside growth.
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