I have been analyzing why ASML is showing such incredible resilience—holding green while the rest of the tech sector feels like it’s in a tailspin—and it really comes down to its absolute monopoly on the "picks and shovels" of the AI revolution. While other companies are fighting for market share, ASML is the only one on the planet that can build the High-NA EUV lithography machines required to make the next generation of 2nm chips. I’ve noticed that the stock is currently riding a massive wave of momentum following their blowout Q4 results, where they reported a record-breaking backlog of €38.8 billion. That is essentially a guaranteed revenue stream that exceeds their entire sales target for 2026, giving investors a level of certainty that you just can't find in speculative software names right now.
On the technical side, I’m seeing ASML flash some very healthy signals that explain why my long call is staying green. The stock is comfortably trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and unlike many other tech giants that look "overextended," ASML’s daily RSI is sitting around 57–60. This is a "Goldilocks" zone—it shows strong buying interest without being dangerously overbought, suggesting there is still plenty of room for the stock to run before it hits a ceiling. I also found that analysts have been aggressively hiking their price targets, with some now looking toward the $1,900 to $2,000 range, especially as Intel recently qualified ASML’s newest High-NA systems for high-volume manufacturing.
I am definitely holding onto my position here because ASML feels like the safest harbor in this storm. Even with the broader market sell-off, the fundamental demand for AI infrastructure isn't slowing down, and since every major foundry (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) is essentially "locked in" to ASML's technology, the company has immense pricing power. Between the new €12 billion share buyback program and the fact that they are essentially the bottleneck for the entire semiconductor industry, I believe the "green" we are seeing is just the beginning of a much larger breakout.
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