$United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ A deal is coming together. Iran doesn't want the US to pay for its reconstruction but will charge a $2 million fee for every ship crossing the Strait of Hormuz, to be shared with Oman. Trump probably wants to take over that fee.
Anyway, a deal is close, which explains the stock market moving up and the VIX moving down.
Israel is threatening to bomb Iran's train network, which would cost a lot to rebuild. Iran is going to give up. The US and Iran will become friends, and Foreign Minister Araghchi is in on it. Iran will allow US oil companies to rebuild Iran's oil infrastructure. Why else would Trump have Witkoff and Kushner negotiating? Trump is only interested in getting money out of Iran. Vance and Rubio aren't even involved.
By the way, Trump doesn't care if Europe and Asia have to pay a fee for crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
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