VIX Signal Delivers Again for SPX

SmartReversals
04-09

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

Is the SPX bounce a technical surprise? Not exactly. The price recovered the 20DMA by the close.

$6,795 could set resistance, suggesting a potential consolidation at the open, likely toward $6,728.9 and maybe $6,689.3.

Given that the price is bouncing from extreme oversold conditions, a complete gap fill soon is not guaranteed, since the 200DMA can flip to support, as on May 12 2025.

one year ago today, the VIX closed above 50, a signal with a 100% win rate over the following year and an average S&P 500 return of 35%.

The S&P 500 has gained 38% since then, adding to the list of times when it paid to be greedy when others were fearful.

S&P 500, Nasdaq New Highs! Is 7000 Start of a New Bull Run?
The S&P 500 edged up 0.26% today, consolidating near record highs in a narrow range as markets await clear direction from next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Sector rotation was evident with defensive and growth stocks advancing in tandem, though volume came in below the 20-day average, signaling cautious positioning among major players. A hawkish Fed stance could trigger heavy selling below 7,000, while dovish signals may open the door to $7,100. How should portfolios be dynamically rebalanced at these elevated levels?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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