$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Seasonality (Since 1928)
1) January: +1.1% — Often strong from the “January Effect” as capital gets redeployed, though variability is high.
2) February: +0.3% — Moderately positive, but typically softer than January.
3) March: +0.8% — Generally constructive as Q1 wraps up.
4) April: +1.4% — One of the strongest months, supported by optimism and tax-related flows.
5) May: -0.1% — Marks the “Sell in May” period; returns tend to flatten with higher volatility.
6) June: -0.2% — Historically weaker with lower volumes and early summer slowdown.
7) July: +1.3% — Strong, often driven by earnings season tailwinds.
8) August: -0.1% — Volatile and inconsistent, with frequent drawdowns.
9) September: -0.7% — Statistically the weakest month, with rising caution post-summer.
10) October: +0.8% — Known for volatility, but positive on average and often a rebound month.
11) November: +1.3% — Seasonally strong, supported by holiday demand and sentiment.
12) December: +1.0% — “Santa Claus Rally” effect, with year-end optimism lifting markets.
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