Tigerong
05-24

So how do you identify sustainable growth? Buffett looks for businesses with durable competitive advantages—companies that competitors can't easily chip away at. If he doesn’t have a high degree of confidence that a company will be significantly larger in the future, he won’t buy—even if it looks cheap.

Aside from the popular MOAT ETF, another ETF that reflects Buffett’s philosophy is the Dividend Aristocrats. These are companies that have raised dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. To do that, the  business must be growing steadily. But my issue with Dividend Aristocrats is that most of the companies grow slowly—usually in the single digits.

Consistency is good, but consistent growth in the 10–15% range over decades is even better. That’s the sweet spot.

Also, not all great growth stocks pay dividends. And companies that do pay dividends tend to grow more slowly. So a better measure is Free Cash Flow (FCF), which is closest to what Buffett calls “owner’s earnings.” A company that grows FCF consistently is far more valuable than one that just grows revenue or even profits. As the saying goes: Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash flow is reality.

Chip Leader Falls While Fiber, Compute, and Power All Rally — Where Did the Money Move?
Chips fell; the far end of the AI chain surged: CoreWeave +11.72%, Lumentum +11.04%, Bloom Energy +9.63%, Nebius +7.73%. Optical has orders: Corning signed a multi-billion fibre deal with Verizon; Lumentum is +165.48% YTD. Leasing has a story: Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI partner; CoreWeave's move has no named catalyst at all. Power runs on passive money: Bloom joins the S&P 500 at the rebalance. Keep proportions: CoreWeave is +39.41% YTD but only +6.71% over a year, its cash flow leaning on prepayments. Buy signed fibre contracts, the leasing story, or the index entrant?
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