Markets see roughly a 40% prob-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Markets see roughly a 40% probability of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting, up sharply from just 3% at the June meeting according to CME FedWatch. (CBS News) Fed funds futures traders are pricing in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026. (CNBC)

The Fed's April minutes revealed a central bank split on inflation, with a majority signaling a rate hike could be necessary if the Middle East conflict continues driving prices higher — despite holding rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. (U.S. News & World Report)

Warsh complicates this further. He was widely expected to champion rate cuts, but instead faces pressure from oil above $100/barrel and shelter inflation that doubled in April — forcing markets to consider hike scenarios instead of easing.

Core PCE Hits 3-Year High! Hold or Trim at Market Highs?

April core PCE inflation rose to 3.3%, its highest since 2023, yet the bearish data failed to suppress AI-driven risk appetite. This marks the first inflation report under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with Powell's dissenting vote signaling deepening divisions within the FOMC. The tug-of-war between the AI capex narrative and a 'high inflation plus hawkish Fed' backdrop is set to determine market direction in the second half. With inflation re-accelerating, will you ride AI momentum and add exposure — or start trimming for safety?

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