Everyone is bullish right now. I'm not after June 15:
1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.
— institutions sell liquid mega caps to fund IPO allocations
— highest liquidity name dumped first during capital reallocation
— mega cap growth sold to raise new IPO subscription capital
— small ETF sees outflows as risk appetite shifts to IPOs
— mid-cap storage name dropped as investors chase new listings
2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17
— high duration growth stock crushed by rising rate expectations
— unprofitable quantum play reprices hard when discount rates rise
— speculative space name hit hardest in risk-off rate environments
— clean energy loses subsidy narrative appeal under hawkish Fed
— pre-revenue satellite stock hammered when cost of capital rises
3. MU, ORCL earnings is the peak of market
— peak earnings historically precede 30-40% semiconductor drawdowns
— forward guidance cuts ripple across entire chip supply chain
— data center demand narrative breaks on weak MU commentary
— cycle top confirmed when memory peers signal inventory glut
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$
— optical interconnect demand collapses when AI capex narrative cracks
4. Midterm elections create market uncertainty
— enterprise SaaS multiples compress under policy and rate uncertainty
— data center infrastructure spending stalls on fiscal policy ambiguity
— optical component orders slow as capex decisions get delayed
— small cap AI infrastructure name hit hardest by risk-off selling
— crypto mining equity crushed by regulatory uncertainty in midterms
$Keel Infrastructure Corp(KEEL)$
— low liquidity name sees outsized drawdown during election volatility
— industrial connector demand weakens on macro uncertainty and delays
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