97% Probability of a 10%+ $SPY Correction After June 15

97% probability $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashes at least 10% after June 15.

There's 4 massive reasons SPY can't avoid it:

1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.

Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before SPY crashed 78%.

2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17

Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days.

3. MU, ORCL earnings is the peak of market

Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops.

$Micron Technology(MU)$ peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December.

4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year

Midterm years average a 17% SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.</h3>\n<p>Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before SPY crashed 78%.</p>\n<h3 id=\"id_4192368067\">2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17</h3>\n<p>Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days.</p>\n<h3 id=\"id_3906047974\">3. MU, ORCL earnings is the peak of market</h3>\n<p>Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops.</p>\n<p><a data-mention-id=\"MU\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Micron Technology\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December.</p>\n<h3 id=\"id_2186118760\">4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year</h3>\n<p>Midterm years average a 17% SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle.</p>\n<hr>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance.</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/554651083281352\" title=\"Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off</a></strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be0283b695178d5d32f9e254ddc1d4a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">97% probability <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$</a> crashes at least 10% after June 15.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\" \" title=\" \" src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6ecf13e9f38e2c263f17d97220f8613b\" tg-width=\"1201\" tg-height=\"481\"><span> </span></p>\n<p>There's 4 massive reasons SPY can't avoid it:</p>\n<h3 id=\"id_2466365725\">1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.</h3>\n<p>Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before SPY crashed 78%.</p>\n<h3 id=\"id_4192368067\">2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17</h3>\n<p>Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days.</p>\n<h3 id=\"id_3906047974\">3. MU, ORCL earnings is the peak of market</h3>\n<p>Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops.</p>\n<p><a data-mention-id=\"MU\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Micron Technology\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December.</p>\n<h3 id=\"id_2186118760\">4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year</h3>\n<p>Midterm years average a 17% SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle.</p>\n<hr>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance.</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/554651083281352\" title=\"Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off</a></strong></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be0283b695178d5d32f9e254ddc1d4a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1350\"></p></body></html>","text":"97% probability $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashes at least 10% after June 15. There's 4 massive reasons SPY can't avoid it: 1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off. Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before SPY crashed 78%. 2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17 Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days. 3. MU, ORCL earnings is the peak of market Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops. $Micron Technology(MU)$ peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December. 4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year Midterm years average a 17% SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle. 😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance. 🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold! Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":205,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":9,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/571412935344568","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2427,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["SPY","MU"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":899,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/571412935344568"}