Selective Exposure vs $NVDA, $MSFT Strength and Broader Market Noise

A discipline-first portfolio approach continues to prioritize trend confirmation over narrative chasing.

While names like $NVDA and $MSFT remain structurally intact, weaker setups such as $DUOL and $PLTR reinforce the importance of patience and selective exposure in a choppy market.

1. $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$

$DUOL is down 77% since the bear cycle started.

This is why I only buy strength, not tickers I’m emotionally attached to.

Buying pressure might be building, but I wait for a clear bull trend.

Losses + opportunity cost of bagholding = double hit.

2. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

Still NOT touching $PLTR ❌

Bull cycle ended in Feb and we’re still trending below the 33FVB.

Could this be a bull trap? Maybe.

Until the trend confirms bullish again, my capital stays sidelined.

3. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$SPY down 1% over two days and you would think the world is ending. 🔻

1. So far, nothing in this tape is signaling real weakness.

2. If we do get an actual correction, expect something 5–10x this move.

I am still bullish.

Would not be surprised to see another ~1% down before a 3% push higher.|

Markets need to breathe.

4. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

$NVDA closed red today, but the broader cycle is still bullish.

Monthly BX continues to show strength.

Base case for me: bounce somewhere between here and 210.

Stocks need to breathe. They almost never go straight up.

This looks like a small pullback inside a larger leg higher, not a trend change.

5. $Microsoft(MSFT)$

$MSFT buy zone alert 🚨

Price has given back last week’s gains, but prior resistance is now acting as support.

Monthly BX is still showing buying pressure and we are probing a previous liquidity zone.

The only thing I do not love here is that the Weekly 33FVB remains red.

6. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$

$CRWV rejected at the same liquidity zone again.

We walked through this in the latest video.

Still looking for a powerful 6–12 month breakout, but this compression has to resolve first.

Bullish compression eventually leads to expansion.

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