My base case: Above $135.
Rough probabilities:
Above $135: 60%
Below $135: 40%
The bull case is that:
Starlink keeps compounding revenue growth.
Investors continue assigning premium multiples to AI, space, and infrastructure assets.
Index inclusion creates sustained institutional ownership.
The bear case is that:
The IPO enthusiasm fades.
Lockup expirations increase supply.
The market decides the valuation got too far ahead of fundamentals.
My prediction: SPCX opens around $165–180 (+22% to +33%) and finishes its first year around $170–220, assuming the broader market remains supportive. That's bullish, but not nearly as bullish as some of the projections circulating right now.
SpaceX Rebounds 2.6% but BofA Issues Cautious Target — Can You Trust Wall Street's Bull Chorus?
SpaceX (SPCX) rebounded 2.60% to $152, halting a steep decline — but the signals conflict. A wave of Wall Street "buy" ratings just emerged, yet Bank of America set a target markets are calling "alarming," fueling debate over what analysts see that retail doesn't. Two new ETFs have even explicitly excluded Musk-linked assets. With institutions shouting buy while flashing cautious targets, do you trust the bullish call on SpaceX — or stay wary of a high-volatility falling knife?
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