Options777
06-28

Stretching out the chart for $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$  $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ , the current dip is a minor pull-back and shaking out those who are panicking after the 3 months of all time highs.


The sell-in-may event this year got postponed till mid June because of the Iran war and the world cup. Big boys traders are taking a delayed summer break now thus the money flow is mainly algorithmic by the market makers.  I expect to see more catalysts coming in late July onwards and hopefully we will resume a bullish trend towards mid terms.


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Modified in.06-28
Last Speech Before Blackout: What Will Warsh Say?
Fed Chair Warsh speaks in Bangkok on October 16 Beijing time, the last official comment before the FOMC blackout ahead of the October 27–28 meeting. Markets price about 80% odds of no move in October and similar odds of a December hike: QQQ closed Thursday -1.34% at $747.58, SPY -0.42% at $773.93. On October 7 the 10-year hit 5.366% and the 30-year 5.728%, both highest since 2002. Bulls say the hold is priced and a non-hawkish speech lifts an overhang; bears say term premium and fiscal imbalances drive the long end, and the Fed can't fix either. What do you want to hear from Warsh?
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Comments

  • pizzi
    06-29
    pizzi
    SMH still looks like a reset, not damage. If flows turn back late July, semis can rip again no?
    • Options777: 
      not sure what does damage means here but SMH is still moving above 30 and 50 day Moving average. the momentum is still going very strong, semis just announced price increase from July onwards, so funds should rotate into Semis, hyperscalers and cloud providers will continue to suffer
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