Let's be real — watching NVDA -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Let's be real — watching NVDA go from $236 to under $200 in under two months hurts. I've been holding calls through this and it's been a rough few weeks. But here's what I keep coming back to when I look at the actual numbers.

Bloomberg ran an analysis this week pointing out that after shedding roughly $1 trillion in market cap since its May 14 all-time high, Nvidia is now trading at its cheapest valuation since before the AI boom. Let that sink in. The stock that led the entire AI trade is now cheaper on a forward earnings basis than Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. One analyst specifically called it "compelling value" — and the math backs that up when you look at the 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates.

So what's causing the disconnect? The business is genuinely accelerating. Q1 FY27 revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year. Q2 guidance is $91 billion. Management just approved an $80 billion share buyback. And SemiAnalysis — a semiconductor research firm I follow closely — wrote this week that Nvidia could actually beat Wall Street's H2 estimates by another 20%. Goldman Sachs estimates that NVDA and Micron together are going to drive 40% of the entire S&P 500's Q2 earnings growth. That's not a company in trouble.

The selling is coming from rotation and sentiment, not fundamentals. Hedge funds have been offloading tech at record pace — the Goldman note this week confirmed that. Michael Burry disclosed a short position against NVDA too, which always creates headlines even if his track record on tech shorts is mixed at best. And the broader semi sector is going through a reality check after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ran 74% in 2026 — NVDA just happened to be the one that everyone piled into, so it's the one getting sold hardest.

Technically, the stock needs to clear $200.23 for any short-term recovery to be confirmed. The $192–$193 zone is critical support, where the 200-day moving average sits. If that holds, the bounce setup is real. If it breaks, you wait for $189.85 before looking at entries again.

Chip Stocks Sold Off, But AMD Says Demand Still Outstrips Supply?

Chips retreated with the AI complex Thursday: Intel -5.34% to $107.08, Broadcom -4.35% to $360.14, AMD -3.90% to $620.68, Nvidia -2.94% to $230.48. AMD CEO Lisa Su said in Taipei this week that AI chip demand still exceeds supply even as output scales into 2026, with HBM, packaging and wafers all constrained; Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan reaffirmed Terafab. Bulls say a read from those with real order books beats an accounting revision; bears say capacity is a 2026 story and downstream budgets validate demand, not supplier talk. Executives call demand insatiable while stocks fall — add here?

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AMD CEO Lisa Su said in Taipei this week that AI chip demand still exceeds supply even as output scales into 2026, with HBM, packaging and wafers all constrained; Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan reaffirmed Terafab. Bulls say a read from those with real order books beats an accounting revision; bears say capacity is a 2026 story and downstream budgets validate demand, not supplier talk. Executives call demand insatiable while stocks fall — add here?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b41155e98aed5ef07f32e2a10551be8a"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Let's be real — watching NVDA go from $236 to under $200 in under two months hurts. I've been holding calls through this and it's been a rough few weeks. But here's what I keep coming back to when I look at the actual numbers.</p>\n<p>Bloomberg ran an analysis this week pointing out that after shedding roughly $1 trillion in market cap since its May 14 all-time high, Nvidia is now trading at its cheapest valuation since before the AI boom. Let that sink in. The stock that led the entire AI trade is now cheaper on a forward earnings basis than Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. One analyst specifically called it \"compelling value\" — and the math backs that up when you look at the 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates.</p>\n<p>So what's causing the disconnect? The business is genuinely accelerating. Q1 FY27 revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year. Q2 guidance is $91 billion. Management just approved an $80 billion share buyback. And SemiAnalysis — a semiconductor research firm I follow closely — wrote this week that Nvidia could actually beat Wall Street's H2 estimates by another 20%. 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If it breaks, you wait for $189.85 before looking at entries again.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Let's be real — watching NVDA go from $236 to under $200 in under two months hurts. I've been holding calls through this and it's been a rough few weeks. But here's what I keep coming back to when I look at the actual numbers.</p>\n<p>Bloomberg ran an analysis this week pointing out that after shedding roughly $1 trillion in market cap since its May 14 all-time high, Nvidia is now trading at its cheapest valuation since before the AI boom. Let that sink in. The stock that led the entire AI trade is now cheaper on a forward earnings basis than Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. One analyst specifically called it \"compelling value\" — and the math backs that up when you look at the 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates.</p>\n<p>So what's causing the disconnect? The business is genuinely accelerating. Q1 FY27 revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year. Q2 guidance is $91 billion. Management just approved an $80 billion share buyback. And SemiAnalysis — a semiconductor research firm I follow closely — wrote this week that Nvidia could actually beat Wall Street's H2 estimates by another 20%. Goldman Sachs estimates that NVDA and Micron together are going to drive 40% of the entire S&amp;P 500's Q2 earnings growth. That's not a company in trouble.</p>\n<p>The selling is coming from rotation and sentiment, not fundamentals. Hedge funds have been offloading tech at record pace — the Goldman note this week confirmed that. Michael Burry disclosed a short position against NVDA too, which always creates headlines even if his track record on tech shorts is mixed at best. And the broader semi sector is going through a reality check after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ran 74% in 2026 — NVDA just happened to be the one that everyone piled into, so it's the one getting sold hardest.</p>\n<p>Technically, the stock needs to clear $200.23 for any short-term recovery to be confirmed. The $192–$193 zone is critical support, where the 200-day moving average sits. If that holds, the bounce setup is real. If it breaks, you wait for $189.85 before looking at entries again.&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"Let's be real — watching NVDA go from $236 to under $200 in under two months hurts. I've been holding calls through this and it's been a rough few weeks. But here's what I keep coming back to when I look at the actual numbers. Bloomberg ran an analysis this week pointing out that after shedding roughly $1 trillion in market cap since its May 14 all-time high, Nvidia is now trading at its cheapest valuation since before the AI boom. Let that sink in. The stock that led the entire AI trade is now cheaper on a forward earnings basis than Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. One analyst specifically called it \"compelling value\" — and the math backs that up when you look at the 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates. So what's causing the disconnect? The business is genuinely accelerating. Q1 FY27 revenue came in at $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year. Q2 guidance is $91 billion. Management just approved an $80 billion share buyback. And SemiAnalysis — a semiconductor research firm I follow closely — wrote this week that Nvidia could actually beat Wall Street's H2 estimates by another 20%. Goldman Sachs estimates that NVDA and Micron together are going to drive 40% of the entire S&P 500's Q2 earnings growth. That's not a company in trouble. The selling is coming from rotation and sentiment, not fundamentals. Hedge funds have been offloading tech at record pace — the Goldman note this week confirmed that. Michael Burry disclosed a short position against NVDA too, which always creates headlines even if his track record on tech shorts is mixed at best. And the broader semi sector is going through a reality check after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ran 74% in 2026 — NVDA just happened to be the one that everyone piled into, so it's the one getting sold hardest. Technically, the stock needs to clear $200.23 for any short-term recovery to be confirmed. The $192–$193 zone is critical support, where the 200-day moving average sits. If that holds, the bounce setup is real. 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