Selina Han's SPX 0DTE Playbook — Fed Rate Limbo, AI Divergence & The H2 2026 Event Trade

Speaker: Selina Han @Selina_Han_Insights (Founder of Han Insights, Former Cboe Economist, Holding a Ph.D. in Applied Economics from UIUC)

Live Date: July 10, 2026 (Review Link>>)

🎯 5 Key Takeaways

• SPX 0DTE volume share rocketed from under 10% pre-2022 to nearly 60% by August 2025

• Cash settlement plus European-style exercise removes early assignment and delivery risk

• Near-zero time decay makes 0DTE the low-cost tool for same-day event trades

• Fed stays higher-for-longer as inflation risk fights hidden labor softness

• AI sector volatility stays elevated through H2 2026, with sharp divergence by sub-sector

🏛️ The 3-Layer Investment Framework

• Layer 1, Market Structure: 16 US option exchanges, participant roles, order routing, SEC guardrails

• Layer 2, Derivatives & Volatility: option volume, implied vol, and positioning reveal signals stock price alone can't

• Layer 3, Macro & Sector Themes: rates, inflation, AI adoption, and geopolitics drive dominant trend direction

• Identify the market's dominant driver first, before picking single-stock trades

• Separate transient drivers (one-off IPO liquidity) from structural shifts to set holding periods

📊 SPX 0DTE Fundamentals

• Cash-settled, no physical delivery, so no unplanned post-expiry position adjustments

• European-style exercise eliminates early assignment risk entirely

• 100x contract multiplier delivers efficient broad S&P 500 exposure for hedging

• Near-zero time decay premium since pricing ties only to the same-day event impact

• Best suited for macro events like FOMC, CPI, payrolls, not single-stock earnings

📈 The 0DTE Growth Story

• CBOE added Tuesday and Thursday SPX weekly expiries between 2022 and 2023, creating daily coverage

• 0DTE share of total SPX volume surged from under 10% pre-2022 to almost 60% by August 2025

• Growth tracks the 2022 Fed hike cycle, with frequent FOMC, CPI, and labor prints as catalysts

• Retail investors have become the largest participant group in the 0DTE space

• Volume spikes notably around shock events, including the April 2025 tariff episode

🏭 AI Sector Divergence

• Upstream semiconductor and GPU suppliers have seen 10x+ price gains through 2025-2026

• Downstream SaaS and enterprise tool names face scrutiny over capex squeezing free cash flow

• High beta exposure to rate shifts keeps AI names volatile through H2 2026

• Institutional rebalancing after big AI gains fuels sharp swings, then re-accumulation on strong fundamentals

• Performance diverges based on how directly a sub-sector is exposed to current AI demand

⚖️ Fed & Macro Outlook, H2 2026

• Fed balances curbing inflation from high oil prices and remaining US-China tariffs against labor risk

• AI-driven restructuring across tech, finance, and professional services isn't fully showing in headline unemployment yet

• Rates stay at multi-decade highs near-term; cut timing depends on sustained core inflation declines

• Event-driven repricing around inflation, labor data, and rate expectations continues through H2 2026

🔍 Q&A Highlights

• Most retail broker platforms offer built-in probability-of-profit calculators for 0DTE planning

• CBOE is rolling out 24/7 options trading for SPX and single-stock products, widening APAC access

• For single-stock earnings events, use individual equity options instead of broad SPX 0DTE

• Structured, expectation-aligned 0DTE trades beat unplanned discretionary bets on consistency

💬 Words from Selina

I don't think investing is only about picking one stock. It is also about understanding the broader market environment, like interest rate liquidity, volatility, positioning, and how investors react to new information.

0DTE before was only less than 10%. But there are reasons why I will say there's product innovation. In the latter, I will actually here I mentioned in 2022 that the growth is rapid, super rapid, became 40%, and even now it's almost 60%.

First, I spend quite a lot of time on SPX 0DTE, which is great in event trading instruments and matches option maturity with event horizons, and it's lower cost in terms of time value, almost no time value because expire on the same day.