Weekly: Dow Hits Record High on Chip Rally, Big Bank Earnings & June CPI Take Center Stage

Last Week's Recap

1. Market Digest: Moderate Gains, Earnings Build-Up, Yields Spike, Oil Reverses

• Moderate gains — S&P 500 +1%+, NASDAQ +2%, second straight positive week; stocks alternating gains/losses since early June on AI spending, Middle East, oil.

• Earnings build-up — Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth forecast 23.6% (up from 23.3%), second straight quarter of 20%+ growth as banks kick off season.

• Elevated yields — 10-year Treasury at 4.56% (from 4.37%), 30-year at 5.06% (from 4.87%), highest since mid-May.

• Dow record — Dow hit 53,055.9 Mon (record), but finished -0.5% for week. S&P 500 -0.5% below June 2 record; NASDAQ -3% below June 2 peak.

• Oil reverses — Crude jumped to ~$76 Wed on Middle East escalation, pulled back to ~$71 Fri.

• Volatility eases — VIX fell to 15.0 (lowest in 6+ months), down from 22.2 on June 10.

• Small caps lag — Russell 2000 -0.6%, large-cap +1.0%, eroding YTD outperformance.

• Fed chair, CPI ahead — Warsh testifies Tue/Wed; CPI report due Tuesday.

2. U.S. Market — S&P 500 edges up 1.23% to record 7,575.39 as Meta and chip stocks soar, defensives retreat

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 1.23% to close at a record 7,575.39, driven by a powerful semiconductor and networking rally while defensive sectors sold off. Tech hardware and AI infrastructure plays led the charge.

Sectors: Alibaba Concept (+16.27%) and NFT Concept (+13.60%) led the concept board. On the main exchange, Technology Hardware (+12.27%) and Investment Banking (+11.38%) dominated.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ +14.81%: Best-performing S&P 500 stock Friday. Surged on plans to double cloud capacity by 2027, produce proprietary AI chips with Broadcom, and potentially rent out unused computing power.

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ +8.28%: Advanced as Blackwell Ultra production ramps at full speed with extraordinary demand. Reasoning AI models are driving massive training and inference performance needs.

• $Broadcom(AVGO)$ +10.96%: Surged on a reported $10B AI chip order from a fourth customer for custom XPUs. Q3 AI revenue jumped 63% YoY, prompts upward guidance revisions.

• $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ +7.74%: Rallied ahead of its late-July AI event. Meta adopted AMD’s Helios servers, and Citigroup speculated Anthropic may join its client list.

• $Cisco(CSCO)$ +7.65%: Advanced on strong AI infrastructure demand. Q3 revenue beat estimates at $15.84B (+12% YoY), and the company declared a $0.42 dividend.

• $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ +9.79%: Rallied on explosive Q1 revenue of $5.95B (+251% YoY), fueled by massive enterprise AI storage demand.

• $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ -2.09%: Retreated on profit-taking despite beating Q1 EPS estimates by $1.58. A premium 41x P/E valuation left it vulnerable to defensive sector rotation.

• $Visa(V)$ -3.63%: Fell as investors rotated out of financial services into tech hardware, pulling back from recent highs near $336.

• $AbbVie(ABBV)$ -4.98%: Declined ahead of its July 31 earnings. Investors remain concerned over Humira biosimilar competition and a high 325% payout ratio.

• $GE Aerospace(GE)$ -4.83%: Retreated despite a strong Q1 beat, as management left full-year guidance unchanged. The stock's high 37x P/E left little room for disappointment.

3. Hong Kong Market — HSI surges 3.53% to 24,175.12 as Alibaba-backed names and banks lead, CATL slumps

The $HSI(HSI)$ reclaimed the 24,000 level, driven by Alibaba-backed names and state banks. Southbound funds rotated into cheap Chinese tech and financials, offsetting new-energy selling.

Sectors: Advertising (+18.54%), Alibaba-Backed (+15.96%), and Broadline Retail (+15.41%) led the broad risk-on rally.

9 Popular Stocks:

• $BABA-W(09988)$ +17.11%: Exploded higher on renewed optimism around China's AI capex cycle and e-commerce stabilization. Valuation remains near historic lows at ~18x forward P/E.

• $TENCENT(00700)$ +6.73%: Advanced on continued buybacks and strong Southbound inflows. A dynamic P/E of ~17.8x attracted global capital seeking discounted AI exposure.

• $ICBC(01398)$ (+3.58%) / $CCB(00939)$ (+4.5%) / $ABC(01288)$ (+3.58%) / $BOC HONG KONG(02388)$ (+5.82%): The "Big Four" state banks rallied collectively. Investors favored their resilient earnings, high dividend yields, and policy stability.

• $CATL(03750)$ -13.10%: Plunged to a one-month low despite strong Q1 earnings. Succumbed to heavy profit-taking and rising worries over lithium price volatility impacting margins.

• $FAST RETAIL-DRS(06288)$ -4.51%: The Uniqlo parent fell in Hong Kong post-earnings. A "sell the news" reaction dragged the shares lower despite a 33.6% jump in operating profit.

• $KNOWLEDGE ATLAS(02513)$ -8.53%: The Tsinghua spin-off retreated after a massive post-IPO run. Investors took profits while questioning near-term monetization of its GLM-5 models.

4. Singapore Market — STI surges 4.29% to record as banks and China tech SDRs lead

The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ closed at 5,469.29, just shy of its all-time high. The index gained for seven straight sessions, driven by local banks and a rebound in Chinese tech SDRs.

Sectors: Broadline Retail (+13.02%), Technology Hardware (+12.27%), and Investment Banking (+11.38%) led the board.

11 Popular Stocks:

• $DBS(D05.SI)$ +5.53%: Hit a record high of S$$70.27. Attracted $$739M in net institutional inflows across May/June, supporting a projected 6.1% dividend yield for 2026.

• $OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$ +8.38%: Rallied sharply on bank rotation and a sector-leading CET1 ratio. Market chatter regarding a payout ratio increase to 60% drove re-rating hopes.

• $UOB(U11.SI)$ +10.29%: Led the banking rally to hit an all-time high of S$44.19. Posted the smallest Q1 net interest income drop and offers the lowest sector valuation.

• $Bank of CN HK SDR 1to1(HBND.SI)$ +5.03%: Advanced as Hong Kong office leasing showed tentative signs of bottoming amid broader property sector optimism.

• $Wilmar Intl(F34.SI)$ +3.49%: Edged higher on resilient palm oil prices and its extensive global value chain.

• $SS SPDR STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ +4.46%: Mirrored the benchmark index's surge, offering broad exposure to the record-breaking Singapore rally.

• $Alibaba HK SDR 5to1(HBBD.SI)$ +16.03%: The Singapore SDR tracked its Hong Kong parent higher on China AI optimism. The company also announced a cash dividend for holders.

• $Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1(HXXD.SI)$ +12.7%: The consumer tech SDR surged as monthly SU7 electric vehicle deliveries continued to beat targets alongside regional ecosystem growth.

• $Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ -5.02%: Bucked the rally on profit-taking. Analysts flagged concerns over lower power prices and regional policy risks.

• $Suntec Reit(T82U.SI)$ -8.02%: Slumped as interest rate concerns and office vacancy pressures triggered a rotation out of highly leveraged yield plays.

5. Australian Market — ASX 200 dips 0.43% as iron ore and lithium miners slump

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ shed 0.43% as heavy selling in iron ore and lithium miners offset gains in energy and the big banks. The index held key support at 8,750.

Sectors: Oil & Gas Drilling (+18.18%) and Household Products (+9.09%) led the market.

11 Popular Stocks:

• $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ -3.67%: Retreated as iron ore fell below US$$99/tonne. Westpac forecasts a drop to U$$83 by end-2026 on higher global supply and weaker Chinese steel output.

• $Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$ -3.9%: Tracked BHP lower on commodity price fears and Westpac's bearish outlook, pausing its strong six-month run.

• $AMCOR PLC-CDI(AMC.AU)$ -4.21%: Fell on concerns over slowing consumer demand and margin pressure, underperforming the broader materials sector.

• $BRAMBLES LTD(BXB.AU)$ -4.97%: Retreated on global trade volume concerns. The stock trades at a premium 25.2x P/E, leaving little room for growth misses.

• $PLS Group Ltd(PLS.AU)$ -11.47%: Plunged due to depressed lithium prices, oversupply worries, and weak EV demand signals from China.

• $JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES-CDI(JHX.AU)$ -5.3%: Fell despite a Q4 earnings beat. Investors grew cautious over softer North American demand and soft FY2027 revenue guidance.

• $WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD(WDS.AU)$ -4.23%: Retreated on weak oil prices, softer global petroleum demand, and ongoing CEO transition concerns.

• $SANTOS LIMITED(STO.AU)$ +7.32%: Bucked the sector downturn on positive operational updates, M&A rumors, and early repayment of its PNG LNG project debt.

• $COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ +2.33%: Advanced on defensive financial rotation, benefiting from its dominant market position and resilient dividend yield.

• $WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION(WBC.AU)$ +2.38%: Gained on defensive buying as an appealing counter-cyclical play, offering a forward yield near 6%.

• $NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD(NAB.AU)$ +2.7%: Led the bank rally as investors sought shelter in the sector's high dividend yields and policy stability.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

The week ahead: July 13-17

1. Macro Factors: July 13-July 17

Tuesday

• Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo report quarterly earnings

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June – Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wednesday

• ASML, BlackRock, Elevance Health, J & J, Morgan Stanley, and United Airlines release earnings

• Federal Reserve Beige Book (5th of 8 releases this year)

Thursday

• Netflix, TSMC, UnitedHealth, Abbott, Alcoa, GE Aerospace, and USB announce quarterly results

• Retail Sales data for June – Census Bureau

2. Earnings Focus: July 13-July 17

Citigroup (C) - Tuesday

Goldman Sachs (GS) - Tuesday

JPMorgan (JPM) - Tuesday

ASML (ASML) - Wednesday

Morgan Stanley (MS) - Wednesday

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Wednesday

TSMC (TSM) - Thursday

UnitedHealth (UNH) - Thursday

Netflix (NFLX) - Thursday