$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$

Ignoring all the geopolitical issues, trump tariffs and SMCI shit news, $75 is a 2x-3x return from lows. Buybuybuy while we can! [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

1. Key Inputs from the Latest Announcement

• ⁠Q4 FY26 Preliminary Revenue: $11.0B (at the low end of $11.0B–$12.5B guidance).

• ⁠Gross Margin: 15.0% – 17.0% (vs. previous guidance of 8.2%–8.4%).

• ⁠New Orders Intake: >$60 Billion in Q4 alone, pushing backlog to record highs.

• ⁠Share Count: ~580M to 600M diluted shares (reflecting recent capital raises).

2. Updated Earnings Power Model (FY2027 Run-Rate)

Previously, Wall Street modeled SMCI as a low-margin assembler (~8% to 10% gross margins) producing thin operating margins (~4% to 5%).

If SMCI maintains a 12% to 14% normalized gross margin (conservatively assuming Q4's 15%–17% was a favorable mix peak that settles slightly lower), its bottom-line earnings power expands dramatically.

3. Fair Value Target Matrix

Historically, SMCI trades at a discount to peers like Dell and HPE due to corporate governance overhangs and margin volatility.

• ⁠Historical/Discounted P/E Multiplier: 8x – 10x forward earnings

• ⁠Peer Group Benchmark (Dell/HPE): 12x – 15x forward earnings

• ⁠Pure-Play AI Growth Multiplier: 16x – 20x forward earning

Target Valuation Summary

• ⁠Prior Stock Price (Pre-Announcement): ~$24.00 – $25.50

• ⁠Post-Announcement Pre-Market Price: ~$30.00 – $31.00 (+18% to +20% jump)

• ⁠Estimated Fundamental Fair Value: $65.00 – $75.00

Super Micro Surges Nearly 20% on Record Q4 Orders, Margin Beat — Is the Reversal Real?

Super Micro Computer soared 19.84% to $30.56 after the company disclosed record fourth-quarter orders and a better-than-expected gross margin improvement, decisively reversing bearish sentiment tied to AI server price wars. As a core assembly partner for Nvidia's GB-series platforms, the order rebound is viewed as a leading indicator of AI server demand. After months of accounting controversy and short-seller pressure, is this high-volume surge a genuine trend reversal or another valuation overshoot?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Key Inputs from the Latest Announcement</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>• ⁠Q4 FY26 Preliminary Revenue: $11.0B (at the low end of $11.0B–$12.5B guidance).</p>\n<p>• ⁠Gross Margin: 15.0% – 17.0% (vs. previous guidance of 8.2%–8.4%).</p>\n<p>• ⁠New Orders Intake: &gt;$60 Billion in Q4 alone, pushing backlog to record highs.</p>\n<p>• ⁠Share Count: ~580M to 600M diluted shares (reflecting recent capital raises).</p>\n<p>2. Updated Earnings Power Model (FY2027 Run-Rate)</p>\n<p>Previously, Wall Street modeled SMCI as a low-margin assembler (~8% to 10% gross margins) producing thin operating margins (~4% to 5%).</p>\n<p>If SMCI maintains a 12% to 14% normalized gross margin (conservatively assuming Q4's 15%–17% was a favorable mix peak that settles slightly lower), its bottom-line earnings power expands dramatically.</p>\n<p>3. Fair Value Target Matrix</p>\n<p>Historically, SMCI trades at a discount to peers like Dell and HPE due to corporate governance overhangs and margin volatility.</p>\n<p>• ⁠Historical/Discounted P/E Multiplier: 8x – 10x forward earnings</p>\n<p>• ⁠Peer Group Benchmark (Dell/HPE): 12x – 15x forward earnings</p>\n<p>• ⁠Pure-Play AI Growth Multiplier: 16x – 20x forward earning</p>\n<p>Target Valuation Summary</p>\n<p>• ⁠Prior Stock Price (Pre-Announcement): ~$24.00 – $25.50</p>\n<p>• ⁠Post-Announcement Pre-Market Price: ~$30.00 – $31.00 (+18% to +20% jump)</p>\n<p>• ⁠Estimated Fundamental Fair Value: $65.00 – $75.00</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Ignoring all the geopolitical issues, trump tariffs and SMCI shit news, $75 is a 2x-3x return from lows. Buybuybuy while we can! <span>[Cool]&nbsp;</span> <span>[Cool]&nbsp;</span> <span>[Cool]&nbsp;</span>&nbsp;</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>1. Key Inputs from the Latest Announcement</p>\n<p></p>\n<p>• ⁠Q4 FY26 Preliminary Revenue: $11.0B (at the low end of $11.0B–$12.5B guidance).</p>\n<p>• ⁠Gross Margin: 15.0% – 17.0% (vs. previous guidance of 8.2%–8.4%).</p>\n<p>• ⁠New Orders Intake: &gt;$60 Billion in Q4 alone, pushing backlog to record highs.</p>\n<p>• ⁠Share Count: ~580M to 600M diluted shares (reflecting recent capital raises).</p>\n<p>2. Updated Earnings Power Model (FY2027 Run-Rate)</p>\n<p>Previously, Wall Street modeled SMCI as a low-margin assembler (~8% to 10% gross margins) producing thin operating margins (~4% to 5%).</p>\n<p>If SMCI maintains a 12% to 14% normalized gross margin (conservatively assuming Q4's 15%–17% was a favorable mix peak that settles slightly lower), its bottom-line earnings power expands dramatically.</p>\n<p>3. 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Key Inputs from the Latest Announcement • ⁠Q4 FY26 Preliminary Revenue: $11.0B (at the low end of $11.0B–$12.5B guidance). • ⁠Gross Margin: 15.0% – 17.0% (vs. previous guidance of 8.2%–8.4%). • ⁠New Orders Intake: >$60 Billion in Q4 alone, pushing backlog to record highs. • ⁠Share Count: ~580M to 600M diluted shares (reflecting recent capital raises). 2. Updated Earnings Power Model (FY2027 Run-Rate) Previously, Wall Street modeled SMCI as a low-margin assembler (~8% to 10% gross margins) producing thin operating margins (~4% to 5%). If SMCI maintains a 12% to 14% normalized gross margin (conservatively assuming Q4's 15%–17% was a favorable mix peak that settles slightly lower), its bottom-line earnings power expands dramatically. 3. 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