$SPCX$ Is SpaceX worth buying -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Is SpaceX worth buying at around US$111/share?

My view: Yes, if you believe in Starlink.

Many investors are focused on Starship, AI, and future moon or Mars missions. But let’s ignore all of that for a moment and assume a conservative scenario where Starlink is the only meaningful business.

Base case

Starlink remains SpaceX’s core revenue and profit engine, contributing the majority of the company’s operating earnings. It has grown rapidly to over 10 million subscribers and continues to expand globally. (Reuters⁠)

Independent estimates place Starlink’s 2026 revenue in the US$18–20 billion range. (tradingkey.com⁠)

Using a conservative technology infrastructure valuation:

Revenue: US$20 billion

Revenue multiple: 15×

Implied Starlink valuation: US$300 billion

Using the current share count after the IPO, that translates to an intrinsic value of roughly US$240 per SpaceX share if Starlink alone is worth US$300 billion.

Comparing that with today’s price

* Current SpaceX price: ~US$111/share

* Estimated Starlink-only intrinsic value (base case): ~US$240/share

That suggests the stock is trading at less than half of this conservative intrinsic value.

Risks

This assumes that:

* Starlink continues to grow subscribers and revenue.

* Competition does not significantly erode margins.

* Satellite internet demand remains strong.

* In fact there is no competitor in satellite internet now

If Starlink’s growth slows sharply or profitability disappoints, intrinsic value would be lower.

My conclusion

Even if I ignore Starship, launch services, Starshield, and every other future opportunity, I believe US$111/share offers a reasonable margin of safety under a base-case Starlink-only valuation.

Everything else in SpaceX—Starship, launch services, government contracts, and future businesses—can be viewed as additional upside rather than the main reason to invest.

This is my personal valuation framework, not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.

SpaceX Slides 6.7% Ahead of Aug. 4 Earnings — Is the Bubble Bursting?

SpaceX fell 6.70% to $115.26, with a Wall Street analyst publicly challenging bull-case logic as the August 4 earnings test approaches and shares trade roughly 47% below their peak. Tesla's latest results confirmed ~$1 billion in SpaceX equity gains, underscoring still-elevated private-market valuations. Is this panic-driven overselling, or the early transmission of a primary-market bubble into public equity prices?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Tesla's latest results confirmed ~$1 billion in SpaceX equity gains, underscoring still-elevated private-market valuations. Is this panic-driven overselling, or the early transmission of a primary-market bubble into public equity prices?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3e2f4792e06a23b881ae0c37c9b65a4"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/SS?symbol=SPCX&amp;secType=(null)\">$SPCX$</a>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Is SpaceX worth buying at around US$111/share?&nbsp;</p>\n<p>My view: Yes, if you believe in Starlink.</p>\n<p>Many investors are focused on Starship, AI, and future moon or Mars missions. But let’s ignore all of that for a moment and assume a conservative scenario where Starlink is the only meaningful business.</p>\n<p>Base case</p>\n<p>&nbsp;Starlink remains SpaceX’s core revenue and profit engine, contributing the majority of the company’s operating earnings. It has grown rapidly to over 10 million subscribers and continues to expand globally. (Reuters⁠)</p>\n<p>Independent estimates place Starlink’s 2026 revenue in the US$18–20 billion range. (tradingkey.com⁠)</p>\n<p>Using a conservative technology infrastructure valuation:</p>\n<p>Revenue: US$20 billion</p>\n<p>Revenue multiple: 15×</p>\n<p>Implied Starlink valuation: US$300 billion</p>\n<p>Using the current share count after the IPO, that translates to an intrinsic value of roughly US$240 per SpaceX share if Starlink alone is worth US$300 billion.</p>\n<p>Comparing that with today’s price</p>\n<p>* Current SpaceX price: ~US$111/share</p>\n<p>* Estimated Starlink-only intrinsic value (base case): ~US$240/share</p>\n<p>That suggests the stock is trading at less than half of this conservative intrinsic value.</p>\n<p>Risks</p>\n<p>This assumes that:</p>\n<p>* Starlink continues to grow subscribers and revenue.</p>\n<p>* Competition does not significantly erode margins.</p>\n<p>* Satellite internet demand remains strong.</p>\n<p>* In fact there is no competitor in satellite internet now</p>\n<p>If Starlink’s growth slows sharply or profitability disappoints, intrinsic value would be lower.</p>\n<p>My conclusion</p>\n<p>Even if I ignore Starship, launch services, Starshield, and every other future opportunity, I believe US$111/share offers a reasonable margin of safety under a base-case Starlink-only valuation.</p>\n<p>Everything else in SpaceX—Starship, launch services, government contracts, and future businesses—can be viewed as additional upside rather than the main reason to invest.</p>\n<p>This is my personal valuation framework, not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/SS?symbol=SPCX&amp;secType=(null)\">$SPCX$</a>&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Is SpaceX worth buying at around US$111/share?&nbsp;</p>\n<p>My view: Yes, if you believe in Starlink.</p>\n<p>Many investors are focused on Starship, AI, and future moon or Mars missions. But let’s ignore all of that for a moment and assume a conservative scenario where Starlink is the only meaningful business.</p>\n<p>Base case</p>\n<p>&nbsp;Starlink remains SpaceX’s core revenue and profit engine, contributing the majority of the company’s operating earnings. It has grown rapidly to over 10 million subscribers and continues to expand globally. (Reuters⁠)</p>\n<p>Independent estimates place Starlink’s 2026 revenue in the US$18–20 billion range. (tradingkey.com⁠)</p>\n<p>Using a conservative technology infrastructure valuation:</p>\n<p>Revenue: US$20 billion</p>\n<p>Revenue multiple: 15×</p>\n<p>Implied Starlink valuation: US$300 billion</p>\n<p>Using the current share count after the IPO, that translates to an intrinsic value of roughly US$240 per SpaceX share if Starlink alone is worth US$300 billion.</p>\n<p>Comparing that with today’s price</p>\n<p>* Current SpaceX price: ~US$111/share</p>\n<p>* Estimated Starlink-only intrinsic value (base case): ~US$240/share</p>\n<p>That suggests the stock is trading at less than half of this conservative intrinsic value.</p>\n<p>Risks</p>\n<p>This assumes that:</p>\n<p>* Starlink continues to grow subscribers and revenue.</p>\n<p>* Competition does not significantly erode margins.</p>\n<p>* Satellite internet demand remains strong.</p>\n<p>* In fact there is no competitor in satellite internet now</p>\n<p>If Starlink’s growth slows sharply or profitability disappoints, intrinsic value would be lower.</p>\n<p>My conclusion</p>\n<p>Even if I ignore Starship, launch services, Starshield, and every other future opportunity, I believe US$111/share offers a reasonable margin of safety under a base-case Starlink-only valuation.</p>\n<p>Everything else in SpaceX—Starship, launch services, government contracts, and future businesses—can be viewed as additional upside rather than the main reason to invest.</p>\n<p>This is my personal valuation framework, not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.</p></body></html>","text":"$SPCX$ Is SpaceX worth buying at around US$111/share? My view: Yes, if you believe in Starlink. Many investors are focused on Starship, AI, and future moon or Mars missions. But let’s ignore all of that for a moment and assume a conservative scenario where Starlink is the only meaningful business. Base case Starlink remains SpaceX’s core revenue and profit engine, contributing the majority of the company’s operating earnings. It has grown rapidly to over 10 million subscribers and continues to expand globally. (Reuters⁠) Independent estimates place Starlink’s 2026 revenue in the US$18–20 billion range. (tradingkey.com⁠) Using a conservative technology infrastructure valuation: Revenue: US$20 billion Revenue multiple: 15× Implied Starlink valuation: US$300 billion Using the current share count after the IPO, that translates to an intrinsic value of roughly US$240 per SpaceX share if Starlink alone is worth US$300 billion. Comparing that with today’s price * Current SpaceX price: ~US$111/share * Estimated Starlink-only intrinsic value (base case): ~US$240/share That suggests the stock is trading at less than half of this conservative intrinsic value. Risks This assumes that: * Starlink continues to grow subscribers and revenue. * Competition does not significantly erode margins. * Satellite internet demand remains strong. * In fact there is no competitor in satellite internet now If Starlink’s growth slows sharply or profitability disappoints, intrinsic value would be lower. My conclusion Even if I ignore Starship, launch services, Starshield, and every other future opportunity, I believe US$111/share offers a reasonable margin of safety under a base-case Starlink-only valuation. Everything else in SpaceX—Starship, launch services, government contracts, and future businesses—can be viewed as additional upside rather than the main reason to invest. This is my personal valuation framework, not financial advice. Always do your own research before investing.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/588964196422736","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1700,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/588964196422736"}