苏36
08-14
SNDK can reach $2,200, but I wouldn’t chase it blindly.

What makes this rally different is that the story is shifting from simply “NAND prices are going up” to better earnings visibility, supply discipline, long-term contracts and AI inference potential. If management can deliver the targeted margins and FCF while HBF becomes a real product by 2027, the market could start valuing SNDK less like a traditional cyclical memory stock.

But after a 467% YTD rally, expectations are already sky-high. At this level, the risk isn’t that SNDK has a bad business—it’s that the business performs well while investors expect perfection.

So I’m closer to B: bullish, but waiting for a pullback.

For me, $2,200 is achievable, but the next 30–40% won’t come from hype. It has to come from real earnings growth, stronger contracts, buybacks and proof that HBF can become the next AI memory story.

In short: the bull case is real, but the margin of safety is getting smaller.

@Capital_Insights [思考]

Kioxia Drops First, SanDisk Follows With 9% Loss — Is the Crowded Trade Unwinding?
Memory reversed Tuesday: SanDisk −9.01%, giving back all of Monday's 8.88%. The 2x long SNXX fell 17.84%, the 2x inverse SNDQ rose 18.00%. It started in Asia — Kioxia −7.5% in Japan pressured SanDisk pre-market — then a sell-side note called SanDisk a crowded trade against an underowned Nvidia, arriving after a month-long run and giving leveraged holders their reason to cut. A separate filing showed a fund that lost heavily in July was almost entirely in Micron and SanDisk. Buy the dip, rotate to Micron, or drop the leveraged products?
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Comments

  • happyli
    08-14
    happyli
    467% YTD already prices in a lot, but tighter inventory turns do make this cycle feel more durable. You buying the HBF story yet or waiting for margin proof first?
  • cheerio
    08-14
    cheerio
    Are people ignoring how a 467% run means even a good quarter can still get punished? I like the story, just not the margin of safety here
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