I’m leaning toward A — normal -To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact.

Tuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia.

The key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks.

But AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment.

So I wouldn’t call this an AI-cycle reversal yet. Instead, I’d watch whether SNDK and MU stabilize and reclaim key moving averages. If they do, Tuesday’s crash may eventually look more like a healthy reset than the start of a bear market.

@Tiger_comments [龇牙]

Consensus at $93.6B, Morgan Stanley at $91.1B — Which Bar Is Nvidia Clearing?

Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close (Thursday morning Beijing). Consensus is ~$2.13 EPS on ~$93.63bn revenue; Morgan Stanley models $91.1bn — same print, two verdicts. The harder threshold is behavioral: the stock has fallen the day after earnings four quarters running, so a beat alone no longer pays. It has also told big customers AI server prices rise 15%+ early next year on memory costs: its margin protected, theirs squeezed. Mean target $304.73, ~42% upside. Jackson Hole and Warsh's debut land the same week. Add before the print, wait for both to clear, or rotate to suppliers?

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Comments

kookiz
08-19
kookiz
Rates are the swing factor, but AI hardware demand usually runs longer than a rate scare. If MU and SNDK reclaim those levels, this selloff probably looks temporary

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Consensus is ~$2.13 EPS on ~$93.63bn revenue; Morgan Stanley models $91.1bn — same print, two verdicts. The harder threshold is behavioral: the stock has fallen the day after earnings four quarters running, so a beat alone no longer pays. It has also told big customers AI server prices rise 15%+ early next year on memory costs: its margin protected, theirs squeezed. Mean target $304.73, ~42% upside. Jackson Hole and Warsh's debut land the same week. Add before the print, wait for both to clear, or rotate to suppliers?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b41155e98aed5ef07f32e2a10551be8a"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact.\n\nTuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia.\nThe key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks.\nBut AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment.\nSo I wouldn’t call this an AI-cycle reversal yet. Instead, I’d watch whether SNDK and MU stabilize and reclaim key moving averages. If they do, Tuesday’s crash may eventually look more like a healthy reset than the start of a bear market.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a> [龇牙]</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact.\n\nTuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia.\nThe key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks.\nBut AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment.\nSo I wouldn’t call this an AI-cycle reversal yet. Instead, I’d watch whether SNDK and MU stabilize and reclaim key moving averages. If they do, Tuesday’s crash may eventually look more like a healthy reset than the start of a bear market.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3501196737273098\"> @Tiger_comments </a> [龇牙]</body></html>","text":"I’m leaning toward A — normal profit-taking, with the AI hardware trend still intact. Tuesday’s semiconductor selloff looks more like a valuation reset than a fundamental breakdown. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 5%, while memory and optical names such as SNDK, MU and CRDO were hit much harder than Nvidia. The key issue is macro: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007, while Brent crude moved above $90. That combination naturally pressures high-multiple growth stocks. But AI infrastructure demand has not suddenly disappeared. Memory, storage, networking and GPU demand remain tied to massive data-center investment. So I wouldn’t call this an AI-cycle reversal yet. Instead, I’d watch whether SNDK and MU stabilize and reclaim key moving averages. 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