苏36
08-21
I think the biggest mistake is treating Samsung and SK hynix as the same AI trade.

Samsung’s foundry problem is not technology—it is execution credibility. TSMC’s moat comes from years of stable yields, massive capacity, advanced packaging and repeat orders. Samsung can narrow the gap, but it needs flagship customers to return generation after generation. Its recent 2nm engagements are encouraging, but the real proof will be sustained volume production.

SK hynix is already further along the value chain. HBM demand is translating into profits, cash flow and now aggressive shareholder returns. Its KRW40 trillion buyback and cancellation—about 3.3% of shares—shows management believes the market is undervaluing its future cash generation.

So my view is simple: Samsung is the turnaround bet; SK hynix is the AI cash-flow compounder. The next winner may not be whoever has the smallest node, but whoever converts AI demand into the strongest recurring free cash flow

@AI_FocusedTrader [胜利]

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