Last week’s pullback was less a breakdown than a warning: expensive equities are becoming increasingly sensitive to interest rates. With the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.3% and U.S. debt above $40 trillion, investors are demanding a higher risk premium.

This week could decide the next direction. The July PCE inflation report arrives Wednesday, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole Friday.  If inflation remains sticky and Warsh sounds hawkish, yields could rise further and pressure high-growth stocks.

But the biggest equity catalyst is Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday. Wall Street expects roughly $92–95 billion in revenue, making the report a major test of whether AI spending can justify today’s valuations.

My view: stay selective rather than chase the rebound. Gold, energy and defensive sectors remain attractive, while AI leaders need strong guidance—not merely another earnings beat—to reignite momentum.

@TigerObserver [正经]