Main drivers worth noting:

Bond market & yields: US Treasury announced larger long-end buybacks (described by some as a tactical “Operation Twist”-style move). This provided temporary relief but yields remain elevated, keeping discount-rate pressure on equities, especially growth/tech.

Geopolitics / oil: Ongoing US-Iran tensions (including planned economic measures to isolate Iran) continue to support oil. Brent recently traded near $94 and WTI near $87, with weekly gains of ~5–6%. Higher energy costs feed inflation concerns.

AI / semis: Nvidia (NVDA) reports Wednesday (26 Aug). This remains the key event of the week. Consensus is roughly $92bn revenue (vs company guide ~$91bn ±2%); some banks (Citi, Jefferies) see potential for a larger beat on Blackwell/Rubin demand and networking. High bar after prior post-earnings volatility.

Stocks / themes to watch this week

Nvidia and AI complex (NVDA, related semis, data-center names, software such as CRM, CRWD, SNPS). Earnings + guidance will set the tone for the AI trade.

Energy / oil-related names given geopolitical premium.

Healthcare / biotech (follow-through on Moderna momentum and broader oncology interest).

Select retailers and consumer discretionary for confirmation of demand resilience.

China/HK consumer & internet (PDD reports Monday; Shein IPO flow; any policy signals).

Bond-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs, growth stocks) for yield reaction.

Markets are in a volatile, range-bound environment with elevated event risk. I prefer a selective, risk-managed approach rather than broad directional bets:

Core AI exposure with hedges — Maintain or selectively add quality AI infrastructure names ahead of NVDA, but size positions carefully and consider protective puts or collars given the high expectations and recent post-earnings volatility.

Energy / inflation hedges — Modest overweight or tactical long in quality energy producers or related infrastructure as a portfolio diversifier while oil risk premium persists.

Selective healthcare — Look at high-conviction biotech/oncology names or broader healthcare ETFs for diversification away from pure tech beta.

Yield / duration management — In fixed-income allocations, stay shorter-to-intermediate duration or barbell until the long-end stabilizes. Equity clients with large growth portfolios may want to review sensitivity to further yield spikes.

Asia tactical — Monitor Shein IPO demand and any China policy follow-through. Prefer high-quality HK/China names with strong balance sheets over pure beta.

My current plan / recommended posture

Keep overall equity exposure near neutral-to-slightly defensive relative to benchmarks.

Prioritize quality balance sheets and free-cash-flow generators.

Use the NVDA print and Jackson Hole (later this week) as key decision points for any tactical shifts.

Maintain dry powder for potential post-event dislocations.