The market is telling you: the short term risk of raising interest rates on reprice but not buying on the long term – investors believe that Wash will eventually bring inflation down and are reluctant to push up term premiums. This yield curve flattening signal is one of the most alarming macro cracks in the second half of 2026.
ADP Adds Only 38K Jobs, Yet Yields Won't Fall — What Is the Market Waiting for Friday?
August ADP added 38,000 vs 47,000 consensus, weakest since January; July revised up to 46,000. The mix was worse: manufacturing −17,000, professional services −16,000, nearly all gains from education/healthcare (+45,000). Large firms added 34,000, those under 50 staff 3,000: only the biggest are hiring. That should have pulled yields down; the 10-year held near 4.8%, and rates refusing to move is the answer. S&P +0.46%, QQQ +0.23% ended a three-day slide. Friday's payrolls: ~50,000 seen after July's −23,000. Position for a rate pullback, or accept that weak data and sticky yields can coexist?
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