A stronger dollar is collateral damage. The ECB is also hawking, but the Bank of England is sitting still and the Bank of Japan is still on the loose edge – the relative strength of the dollar will neutralise emerging markets and commodities
ADP Adds Only 38K Jobs, Yet Yields Won't Fall — What Is the Market Waiting for Friday?
August ADP added 38,000 vs 47,000 consensus, weakest since January; July revised up to 46,000. The mix was worse: manufacturing −17,000, professional services −16,000, nearly all gains from education/healthcare (+45,000). Large firms added 34,000, those under 50 staff 3,000: only the biggest are hiring. That should have pulled yields down; the 10-year held near 4.8%, and rates refusing to move is the answer. S&P +0.46%, QQQ +0.23% ended a three-day slide. Friday's payrolls: ~50,000 seen after July's −23,000. Position for a rate pullback, or accept that weak data and sticky yields can coexist?
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