LanlanCC
08-31

If the Fed raises rates in September, this will be the first time since 2022, two months before elections that it has tightened policy

A Dove Breaks Fed Hawk Chorus — Can S&P's Best Day in a Month Survive Tonight's Jobs Report?
Waller broke weeks of hawkish pressure: he backs holding rates while progress toward 2% continues. Hike odds this month fell 70% to 50%, the 10-year 4.81% to 4.74%. S&P +1.06%, Dow +614 points, best day in a month: Microsoft +2.68%, Meta +3.01%. Ease the pressure and the priciest assets bounce first. But this dove is on loan: the range is still 3.50–3.75%, three members backed a hike in July, and September 16 is live. Tonight's payrolls decide: consensus +56,000 after July's −23,000, and hourly earnings at +3.0% is what matters. Call peak rates before the data, or trust only the hold?
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Comments

  • snuggix
    08-31
    snuggix
    Last time this setup showed up, equities usually cared more about growth cracks than the hike itself. If payrolls and credit stay firm, the reaction may be way less dramatic.
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