August 31 — Last Day of Summer, First Day of Reckoning

Three things I'm watching as we close out August and head into what is historically the market's worst month.

1. The Warsh overhang is real

Friday's Jackson Hole speech was more hawkish than the market wanted. Warsh said inflation is "too high" and the Fed "has more work to do" — stopping just short of explicitly telegraphing a September hike. With the FOMC meeting on September 16, the probability of a hike has moved from one-in-three to above one-in-two. That repricing isn't fully done. High-multiple tech — NVDA, MRVL, BE — faces continued multiple compression if the long end o

2. The "buy the earnings beat" trade is broken this cycle

MRVL beat on revenue and EPS, guided to 50% growth, and fell 10%. A week earlier MU did the same. The pattern is consistent: stocks that ran 100-180% into a print are selling the news regardless of the quality of results. At 60x forward earnings, perfection is priced in. Perfection delivered still disappoints when the market was priced for something beyond perfection. This is not a reason to sell quality — it is a reason not to chase momentum.

3. September seasonality is real but often misread

Since 1928, the S&P 500 averages -1.17% in September — the only calendar month with a negative long-run average. But when markets are above their 200-day moving average entering September — as they are now with the S&P at 7,711 — average September returns are significantly less negative than the headline figure suggests. The seasonality isn't nothing, but it isn't a reason to sell either.

What I'm actually doing: holding positions, keeping entry alerts active at GOOG $320, VXUS $83, and NVDA $210. If Warsh delivers a September hike and the BOJ also hikes on September 18, both events happening in the same week would be the rare genuine buying opportunity — not because the calendar says so, but because two simultaneous tightening events would create indiscriminate selling in quality names at better prices than today.

The last day of a month is a good time to check process, not price. Is the DCA running? Yes. Are alerts set? Yes. Then the only job is to wait