The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped six basis points to 6.87% on Monday, the highest since June last year, and has risen over 30 basis points in the past two months. This directly compresses the consumer's purchasing power and refinancing space.
ADP Adds Only 38K Jobs, Yet Yields Won't Fall — What Is the Market Waiting for Friday?
August ADP added 38,000 vs 47,000 consensus, weakest since January; July revised up to 46,000. The mix was worse: manufacturing −17,000, professional services −16,000, nearly all gains from education/healthcare (+45,000). Large firms added 34,000, those under 50 staff 3,000: only the biggest are hiring. That should have pulled yields down; the 10-year held near 4.8%, and rates refusing to move is the answer. S&P +0.46%, QQQ +0.23% ended a three-day slide. Friday's payrolls: ~50,000 seen after July's −23,000. Position for a rate pullback, or accept that weak data and sticky yields can coexist?
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