Bad job numbers on Friday coul

Bad job numbers on Friday could actually give the market more room to run.

The weaker-than-expected ADP number cut the September rate hike probability from 68% to 62%, which took some pressure off the dollar and the 10Y yield, allowing the market to bounce. Falling oil prices from their overnight highs also helped.

ADP matters, but it doesn't carry as much weight as the Friday Non-Farm Payroll numbers. So I went through some historical data to see how often ADP acts as a reliable leading indicator for NFP.

Over the past 40 months, ADP and NFP both missed or both exceeded forecasts about 40% of the time. In the other 60%, they diverged, with one missing and one exceeding.

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