Anthony CY Tan
09-10

No, I would not say the memory supercycle is over. In fact, the latest data suggest we are still in the strong part of the cycle, although the risk/reward has changed dramatically because memory stocks have already run so far.

My view: the supercycle is alive, but we’re entering the “late-cycle / valuation” phase

The biggest evidence is supply-demand:

* Gartner forecasts memory revenue of $837B in 2026, up enormously from 2025, with another increase to over $1T in 2027. It expects DRAM revenue to rise 246.6% and NAND 371.9% in 2026.

* Omdia says AI demand is still exceeding available DRAM/HBM/NAND supply and expects bottlenecks to persist into 2027.

* Recent industry commentary says DRAM and NAND remain undersupplied, potentially through 2027.

* SK hynix itself describes 2026 as an HBM-led memory supercycle, with HBM3E transitioning toward HBM4.

So fundamentally, the cycle hasn’t broken, and hence, I would say the memory supercycle is not over as yet. 

CXMT DRAM Breakthrough Hammers Memory and Optical Stocks — Panic or Repricing?
AI hardware sold off hard Monday: SanDisk -5.97%, Lumentum -9.78%, Micron -3.88%, SK Hynix -4.02%. Trigger: CXMT's president announced a 4F² DRAM architecture breakthrough at a weekend conference, targeting server memory by end-2026 — reviving fears of Chinese competition on pricing. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan warned capital, not chips, is now AI's primary bottleneck. Bulls say CXMT still faces major yield hurdles before any volume ramp; bears say once markets price in Chinese DRAM competition, fundamentals can't stop the re-rating. Has this changed your conviction in memory stocks?
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Comments

  • Dollydolly
    09-10
    Dollydolly
    Those Gartner and Omdia numbers are still model outputs, not demand clearing in real shipments. If PC and handset demand stays soft, late-cycle oversupply can show up fast
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